PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 3–2.

Shots
146
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.491.38
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat Borussia M'gladbach 3–2. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – Borussia M'gladbach): shots 14–6, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.49–1.38, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.9 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · Borussia M'gladbach11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundBorussia M'gladbachBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match16.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.5% ●PossessionBorussia Dortmund · Borussia M'gladbach49.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundBorussia M'gladbachBaseline
Possession59.5%49.6%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsBorussia Dortmund 14 shots, Borussia M'gladbach 6 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsBorussia Dortmund 6 shots, Borussia M'gladbach 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.49 xG1.38 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.49 xG, Borussia M'gladbach 1.38 xG
  • Possession60%40%Borussia Dortmund 60%, Borussia M'gladbach 40%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersBorussia Dortmund 6 corners, Borussia M'gladbach 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsBorussia Dortmund 13 fouls, Borussia M'gladbach 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJulian Weigl · Borussia M'gladbach · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKevin Stöger · Borussia M'gladbach · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Süle · Borussia Dortmund · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 62′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWaldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYan Couto · Borussia Dortmund · 60′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 19′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 41′ · 0.15 xG · goalFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.17 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.17 xG · on targetDaniel Svensson · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.41 xG · goalKo Itakura · Borussia M'gladbach · 24′ · 0.57 xG · goalKevin Stöger · Borussia M'gladbach · 56′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.51 xG. Borussia M'gladbach: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 41′Felix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 44′Daniel Svensson · Borussia Dortmund · 45′Ko Itakura · Borussia M'gladbach · 24′Kevin Stöger · Borussia M'gladbach · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 1.51 xG · Borussia M'gladbach 1.46 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Borussia Dortmund
1Draws
1Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–1
Borussia M'gladbach — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–2
Borussia Dortmund — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga4–2
Borussia Dortmund — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga5–2
Borussia M'gladbach — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia M'gladbach in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund30 matchesBorussia M'gladbach30 matches
1.9 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301.6 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.53 goals/match
1.8 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.49 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots30/3011.9 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target30/304.67 shots/match
59.5% ●Possession30/3049.6%
5.83 corners/match ●Corners30/304.33 corners/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls30/3010.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundBorussia M'gladbach
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — Borussia M'gladbach
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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