PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 0–1 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 0–1.

Shots
621
Shots on target
18
Expected goals
0.222.96
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC St. Pauli 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – VfB Stuttgart): shots 6–21, shots on target 1–8, expected goals 0.22–2.96, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible away split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

44%PossessionFC St. Pauli · VfB Stuttgart● 57.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession44%57.2%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots21 shotsFC St. Pauli 6 shots, VfB Stuttgart 21 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot8 shotsFC St. Pauli 1 shot, VfB Stuttgart 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.22 xG2.96 xGFC St. Pauli 0.22 xG, VfB Stuttgart 2.96 xG
  • Possession30%70%FC St. Pauli 30%, VfB Stuttgart 70%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersFC St. Pauli 4 corners, VfB Stuttgart 4 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls12 foulsFC St. Pauli 17 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacob Bruun Larsen · VfB Stuttgart · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 86′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 1′ · 0.07 xG · on targetPascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart · 2′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 4′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 21′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 55′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 68′ · 0.18 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 29′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 60′ · 0.22 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.37 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.39 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 60′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.43 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 21 shots, 8 on target, 3.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.43 xG · VfB Stuttgart 3.15 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC St. Pauli
0Draws
0VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli32 matchesVfB Stuttgart32 matches
0.81 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.78 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/321.59 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.79 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 5.09 shots/match
44%Possession32/32● 57.2%
4.38 corners/matchCorners32/32● 5.03 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 May 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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