PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 17 May 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia M'gladbachVfL Wolfsburg
Shots16 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.92 xG/match1.72 xG/match▲
Possession59%●41%
Corners7 corners/match10 corners/match●
Fouls6 fouls/match4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Philipp Sander · Borussia M'gladbach · 30′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKevin Behrens · VfL Wolfsburg · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKo Itakura · Borussia M'gladbach · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Sander · Borussia M'gladbach · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · VfL Wolfsburg · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFranck Honorat · Borussia M'gladbach · 66′ · 0.04 xG · on targetShio Fukuda · Borussia M'gladbach · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKevin Stöger · Borussia M'gladbach · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedShio Fukuda · Borussia M'gladbach · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Čvančara · Borussia M'gladbach · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJulian Weigl · Borussia M'gladbach · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRocco Reitz · Borussia M'gladbach · 15′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Sander · Borussia M'gladbach · 14′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 78′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAlassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 9′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 13′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 81′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′ · 0.33 xG · goalLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 21′ · 0.48 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia M'gladbach: 16 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia M'gladbach 0.98 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia M'gladbach · VfL Wolfsburg12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia M'gladbachVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against17.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Borussia M'gladbach
1Draws
1VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga5–1
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga1–3
Borussia M'gladbach — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga4–0
Borussia M'gladbach — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Borussia M'gladbach favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 4 · 7 too close

1.62 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/341.65 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.59 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/341.42 xG/match
1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.57 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/3412.8 shots/match
17.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/34▲13.8 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/344.21 shots/match
5.65 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/34▲4.68 shots/match
49.7%●Possessionseason · 34/3446%
4.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●4.79 corners/match
5.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/345.24 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.97 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3410.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3418%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia M'gladbach52.8
VfL Wolfsburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia M'gladbach58.3
VfL Wolfsburg54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia M'gladbach13
VfL Wolfsburg43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia M'gladbach25
VfL Wolfsburg80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia M'gladbach30.6
VfL Wolfsburg41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia M'gladbach41.7
VfL Wolfsburg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia M'gladbach46.6
VfL Wolfsburg50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Borussia M'gladbach34 matchesVfL Wolfsburg34 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored34/341.65 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲1.59 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals34/341.42 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots34/3412.8 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target34/344.21 shots/match
49.7%●Possession34/3446%
4.65 corners/matchCorners34/34●4.79 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.97 fouls/matchFouls34/3410.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Borussia M'gladbach17 matchesVfL Wolfsburg17 matches
1.71 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.71 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.41 goals/match
1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.34 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.1 shots/match
4.65 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.88 shots/match
49.6%●Possession17/1742.2%
4.94 corners/match●Corners17/174.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.35 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 May 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia M'gladbachVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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