PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Tue, 2 Jan 2024, 18:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal SociedadDeportivo Alavés
Shots16 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.25 xG/match▲0.97 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Abderrahman Rebbach · Deportivo Alavés · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbderrahman Rebbach · Deportivo Alavés · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHamari Traoré · Real Sociedad · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 57′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTakefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbderrahman Rebbach · Deportivo Alavés · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHamari Traoré · Real Sociedad · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKieran Tierney · Real Sociedad · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnder Guevara · Deportivo Alavés · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIgor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedUmar Sadiq · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTakefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMartín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.10 xG · goalMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 54′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRobin Le Normand · Real Sociedad · 18′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLuis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés · 76′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Sociedad: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.26 xG. Deportivo Alavés: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Martín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 90′Luis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Sociedad 1.26 xG · Deportivo Alavés 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Sociedad have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Sociedad have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7%●PossessionReal Sociedad · Deportivo Alavés42.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricReal SociedadDeportivo AlavésBaseline
Possession54.7%42.3%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Sociedad
1Draws
0Deportivo Alavés
Real Sociedad — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga1–0
Deportivo Alavés — Real Sociedad · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Sociedad favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Alavés in 3 · 4 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/190.79 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.32 goals/match
1.32 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/191.21 xG/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/191.16 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1912.6 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲10.9 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/193.63 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.89 shots/match
54.7%●Possessionseason · 19/1942.3%
4.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●4.63 corners/match
4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲3.74 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
16.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1913.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1916%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1953%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Sociedad72.5
Deportivo Alavés7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Sociedad58.3
Deportivo Alavés27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Sociedad65
Deportivo Alavés65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Sociedad22.5
Deportivo Alavés92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad92.5
Deportivo Alavés52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad47.5
Deportivo Alavés57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Sociedad60.6
Deportivo Alavés46.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Sociedad19 matchesDeportivo Alavés19 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.79 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.32 goals/match
1.32 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.21 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots19/1912.6 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.63 shots/match
54.7%●Possession19/1942.3%
4.53 corners/matchCorners19/19●4.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
16.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Sociedad10 matchesDeportivo Alavés10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
54.1%●Possession10/1042.4%
4.4 corners/match●Corners10/103.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 2 Jan 2024, 22:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal SociedadDeportivo Alavés
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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