La Liga · 2023Tue, 2 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Valencia

DLLDW

3–1Full-time recap

Villarreal

WDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Valencia	Villarreal
Shots	11 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.8 xG/match▲	0.53 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Valencia: 11 shots, 8 on target, 2.91 xG. Villarreal: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 2.91 xG · Villarreal 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.89 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.89 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.79 shots/match▲ShotsValencia · Villarreal10.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Valencia	Villarreal	Baseline
Shots	9.79 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	9.68 shots/match	16.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.42 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Valencia

1Draws

2Villarreal

3 May 2023Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

31 Dec 2022Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga2–1

19 Apr 2022Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga2–0

30 Oct 2021Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 5 · 3 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.42 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/192 goals/match

1.07 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲1.39 xG/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 19/191.8 xG/match

9.79 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲10.8 shots/match

9.68 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1916.2 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.16 shots/match

4.05 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/196.47 shots/match

44.8%Possessionseason · 19/19●52.2%

3.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●4.68 corners/match

5.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/195.32 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1913.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1911%

74%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia27.5

Villarreal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia22.5

Villarreal44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia74.2

Villarreal7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia12.5

Villarreal7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia62.5

Villarreal47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia2.5

Villarreal62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia21.2

Villarreal43.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia19 matchesVillarreal19 matches

1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.42 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/192 goals/match

1.07 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.39 xG/match

9.79 shots/matchShots19/19▲10.8 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.16 shots/match

44.8%Possession19/19●52.2%

3.16 corners/matchCorners19/19●4.68 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia9 matchesVillarreal9 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.11 goals/match

0.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91 xG/match

11 shots/match▲Shots9/97.89 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.67 shots/match

47.4%Possession9/9●50.4%

3.78 corners/match●Corners9/93.44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls9/913.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Jan 2024, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4