PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Valencia 3–1 Villarreal · La Liga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Valencia won 3–1.

Shots
118
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
2.80.53
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Valencia beat Villarreal 3–1. Recorded in this match (Valencia – Villarreal): shots 11–8, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 2.8–0.53, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.89 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.89 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.79 shots/match ▲ShotsValencia · Villarreal10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricValenciaVillarrealBaseline
Shots9.79 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against9.68 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.42 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsValencia 11 shots, Villarreal 8 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsValencia 8 shots, Villarreal 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.8 xG0.53 xGValencia 2.8 xG, Villarreal 0.53 xG
  • Possession45%55%Valencia 45%, Villarreal 55%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersValencia 4 corners, Villarreal 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsValencia 12 fouls, Villarreal 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFran Pérez · Valencia · 81′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBen Brereton Díaz · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSergi Canós · Valencia · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moreno · Villarreal · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHugo Duro · Valencia · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJesús Vázquez · Valencia · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 22′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEric Bailly · Villarreal · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moreno · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetHugo Guillamón · Valencia · 15′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPepelu · Valencia · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHugo Duro · Valencia · 31′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 73′ · 0.17 xG · goalRoman Yaremchuk · Valencia · 4′ · 0.36 xG · goalRoman Yaremchuk · Valencia · 8′ · 0.39 xG · on targetPepelu · Valencia · 27′ · 0.82 xG · goalPepelu · Valencia · 57′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Valencia: 11 shots, 8 on target, 2.91 xG. Villarreal: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Roman Yaremchuk · Valencia · 4′Pepelu · Valencia · 27′Pepelu · Valencia · 57′Gerard Moreno · Villarreal · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 2.91 xG · Villarreal 0.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Valencia
1Draws
2Villarreal
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga2–1
Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga2–0
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Valencia favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Villarreal in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Valencia19 matchesVillarreal19 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.42 goals/match
1.21 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/192 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲ 1.39 xG/match
9.79 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 10.8 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 4.16 shots/match
44.8%Possession19/19● 52.2%
3.16 corners/matchCorners19/19● 4.68 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Jan 2024, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsValenciaVillarreal
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headValencia — Villarreal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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