La Liga · 2024Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Real Madrid

WWLWD

4–2Full-time recap

Sevilla

LWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Sevilla
Shots	16 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2 xG/match▲	1.32 xG/match
Possession	59%●	41%
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 16 shots, 8 on target, 1.98 xG. Sevilla: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.98 xG · Sevilla 1.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sevilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.11 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Sevilla11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Sevilla	Baseline
Shots	15.1 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	10 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.39 corners/match●CornersReal Madrid · Sevilla5.22 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Sevilla	Baseline
Corners	5.39 corners/match	5.22 corners/match	4.69 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Real Madrid

1Draws

0Sevilla

25 Feb 2024Real Madrid — Sevilla · La Liga1–0

21 Oct 2023Sevilla — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1

27 May 2023Sevilla — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

22 Oct 2022Real Madrid — Sevilla · La Liga3–1

17 Apr 2022Sevilla — Real Madrid · La Liga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Sevilla in 0 · 3 too close

2.28 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.11 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.5 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.08 xG/match

0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.38 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1811.8 shots/match

10 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1811.8 shots/match

6.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.78 shots/match

2.89 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.28 shots/match

60.5%●Possessionseason · 18/1853.3%

5.39 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/185.22 corners/match

4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/184.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.06 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1833%

94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1878%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5

Sevilla72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5

Sevilla50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid82.5

Sevilla40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid67.5

Sevilla42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5

Sevilla42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid82.5

Sevilla72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid67.5

Sevilla57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid18 matchesSevilla18 matches

2.28 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.11 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.5 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.08 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.8 shots/match

6.28 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.78 shots/match

60.5%●Possession18/1853.3%

5.39 corners/match●Corners18/185.22 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.06 fouls/matchFouls18/1812 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid9 matchesSevilla9 matches

2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match

2.28 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.92 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots9/910.6 shots/match

6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match

62%●Possession9/951.7%

6.56 corners/match●Corners9/95.11 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.44 fouls/matchFouls9/911.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.91 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4