PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid · La Liga

3–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid drew 3–3.

Shots
1413
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.620.69
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid): shots 14–13, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.62–0.69, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Real Madrid15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoReal MadridBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match10 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots13 shotsRayo Vallecano 14 shots, Real Madrid 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsRayo Vallecano 5 shots, Real Madrid 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.62 xG0.69 xGRayo Vallecano 1.62 xG, Real Madrid 0.69 xG
  • Possession34%66%Rayo Vallecano 34%, Real Madrid 66%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersRayo Vallecano 4 corners, Real Madrid 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls8 foulsRayo Vallecano 18 fouls, Real Madrid 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Arda Güler · Real Madrid · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 13′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 39′ · 0.03 xG · goalFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 56′ · 0.04 xG · goalVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.09 xG · goalPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 67′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAbdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano · 36′ · 0.10 xG · goalFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 22′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 11′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 4′ · 0.34 xG · goalIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 64′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.66 xG. Real Madrid: 13 shots, 6 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Unai López · Rayo Vallecano · 4′Abdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano · 36′Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 64′Federico Valverde · Real Madrid · 39′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 45′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.66 xG · Real Madrid 0.70 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Rayo Vallecano
2Draws
2Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–2
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano16 matchesReal Madrid17 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored16/17▲ 2.18 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed16/17▲ 0.94 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals16/17▲ 1.84 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots16/17▲ 15.1 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target16/17▲ 6.18 shots/match
48.1%Possession16/17● 60.6%
5.19 corners/matchCorners16/17● 5.35 corners/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls16/179.29 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required