PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Atalanta 2–3 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 2–3.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
96
Expected goals
3.332.1
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Atalanta 3–2. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Real Madrid): shots 20–10, shots on target 9–6, expected goals 3.33–2.1, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid have a visible away split

weak

Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.17 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.5 corners/matchCornersAtalanta · Real Madrid● 5.8 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaReal MadridBaseline
Corners5.5 corners/match5.8 corners/match4.8 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shotsAtalanta 20 shots, Real Madrid 10 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots6 shotsAtalanta 9 shots, Real Madrid 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.33 xG2.1 xGAtalanta 3.33 xG, Real Madrid 2.1 xG
  • Possession56%44%Atalanta 56%, Real Madrid 44%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersAtalanta 5 corners, Real Madrid 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls13 foulsAtalanta 15 fouls, Real Madrid 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Federico Valverde · Real Madrid · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.03 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 4′ · 0.07 xG · on targetÉderson · Atalanta · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 81′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 14′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRaoul Bellanova · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 14′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMatteo Ruggeri · Atalanta · 82′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 59′ · 0.18 xG · goalRodrygo · Real Madrid · 71′ · 0.18 xG · on targetSead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 76′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 56′ · 0.20 xG · goalBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 70′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 2′ · 0.29 xG · on targetAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 10′ · 0.52 xG · goalAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 61′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.87 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 20 shots, 9 on target, 3.45 xG. Real Madrid: 10 shots, 6 on target, 2.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 45′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 65′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 10′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 56′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 3.45 xG · Real Madrid 2.15 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta6 matchesReal Madrid6 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match
0.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
2.39 xG/matchExpected goals6/52.34 xG/match
16.5 shots/matchShots6/515.8 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲ 7 shots/match
54.8% ●Possession6/549.6%
5.5 corners/matchCorners6/5● 5.8 corners/match
9.83 fouls/matchFouls6/511.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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