La Liga · 2024Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Real Valladolid

LWLWL

0–3Full-time recap

Real Madrid

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Valladolid	Real Madrid
Shots	6 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.19 xG/match	1.99 xG/match▲
Possession	32%	68%●
Corners	1 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Valladolid: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.20 xG. Real Madrid: 20 shots, 4 on target, 2.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Valladolid 0.20 xG · Real Madrid 2.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.52 shots/match▲ShotsReal Valladolid · Real Madrid15.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Valladolid	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	8.52 shots/match	15.9 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	15.6 shots/match	9.52 shots/match	10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.2 goals/match	2.38 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

42%PossessionReal Valladolid · Real Madrid●61%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Real Valladolid	Real Madrid	Baseline
Possession	42%	61%	48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Real Valladolid

0Draws

3Real Madrid

25 Aug 2024Real Madrid — Real Valladolid · La Liga3–0

2 Apr 2023Real Madrid — Real Valladolid · La Liga6–0

30 Dec 2022Real Valladolid — Real Madrid · La Liga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Valladolid favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11 · 2 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲2.38 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.95 goals/match

0.9 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲2.09 xG/match

1.74 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.97 xG/match

8.52 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲15.9 shots/match

15.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲9.52 shots/match

2.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲6.43 shots/match

5.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲2.9 shots/match

42%Possessionseason · 21/21●61%

3.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●5.57 corners/match

5.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.05 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.29 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲43%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Valladolid12.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Valladolid4.2

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Valladolid5

Real Madrid84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Valladolid22.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Valladolid62.5

Real Madrid7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Valladolid12.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Valladolid21.2

Real Madrid70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Valladolid21 matchesReal Madrid21 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲2.38 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.95 goals/match

0.9 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲2.09 xG/match

8.52 shots/matchShots21/21▲15.9 shots/match

2.19 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲6.43 shots/match

42%Possession21/21●61%

3.48 corners/matchCorners21/21●5.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls21/219.29 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Valladolid11 matchesReal Madrid11 matches

0.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.91 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.59 xG/match

9.73 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.7 shots/match

2.09 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.64 shots/match

41.8%Possession11/11●60.1%

3.55 corners/matchCorners11/11●4.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls11/119.82 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4