La Liga · 2024Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WWWWL

1–1Full-time recap

Villarreal

LDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Villarreal
Shots	20 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.71 xG/match	2.23 xG/match▲
Possession	59%●	41%
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 20 shots, 8 on target, 1.74 xG. Villarreal: 11 shots, 1 on target, 2.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 1.74 xG · Villarreal 2.31 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.1 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Atlético Madrid

2Draws

1Villarreal

19 Aug 2024Villarreal — Atlético Madrid · La Liga2–2

1 Apr 2024Villarreal — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–2

12 Nov 2023Atlético Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga3–1

4 Jun 2023Villarreal — Atlético Madrid · La Liga2–2

21 Aug 2022Atlético Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 3 · 4 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.86 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.52 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.79 xG/match

0.87 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.17 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲14.5 shots/match

9.95 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.1 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/214.71 shots/match

2.81 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.38 shots/match

52.6%●Possessionseason · 21/2148.2%

4.95 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/214.86 corners/match

3.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/214.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2110%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2186%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid67.5

Villarreal47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid77.5

Villarreal85.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid90.8

Villarreal29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid47.5

Villarreal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid12.5

Villarreal32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid62.5

Villarreal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid56.2

Villarreal65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid21 matchesVillarreal21 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.86 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.52 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.79 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShots21/21▲14.5 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on target21/214.71 shots/match

52.6%●Possession21/2148.2%

4.95 corners/match●Corners21/214.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atlético Madrid11 matchesVillarreal11 matches

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.55 goals/match

0.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.36 goals/match

2.18 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.63 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots11/1114.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.45 shots/match

56.5%●Possession11/1148.9%

6 corners/match●Corners11/114.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.8 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4