La Liga · 2024Fri, 7 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

DWDWW

1–0Full-time recap

Real Valladolid

LWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Rayo Vallecano	Real Valladolid
Shots	20 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.32 xG/match▲	0.41 xG/match
Possession	69%●	31%
Corners	4 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.34 xG. Real Valladolid: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 2.34 xG · Real Valladolid 0.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Real Valladolid8.48 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Rayo Vallecano	Real Valladolid	Baseline
Shots	13.1 shots/match	8.48 shots/match	11 shots/match
Shots against	12.6 shots/match	16.1 shots/match	10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.17 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.5 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	11 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Rayo Vallecano

0Draws

0Real Valladolid

5 Oct 2024Real Valladolid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–2

4 May 2023Rayo Vallecano — Real Valladolid · La Liga2–1

14 Jan 2023Real Valladolid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Real Valladolid in 0 · 2 too close

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.65 goals/match

1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/232.09 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/230.86 xG/match

1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/231.83 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/238.48 shots/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2316.1 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/232.22 shots/match

4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/235.26 shots/match

50.3%●Possessionseason · 23/2341.8%

5.13 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/233.52 corners/match

4.87 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235.61 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2313.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2322%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2357%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano52.5

Real Valladolid12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano62.5

Real Valladolid4.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano44.2

Real Valladolid4.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano82.5

Real Valladolid22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5

Real Valladolid72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano57.5

Real Valladolid12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano70

Real Valladolid23.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano23 matchesReal Valladolid23 matches

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.65 goals/match

1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/232.09 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals23/230.86 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots23/238.48 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target23/232.22 shots/match

50.3%●Possession23/2341.8%

5.13 corners/match●Corners23/233.52 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano11 matchesReal Valladolid12 matches

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.67 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/122.75 goals/match

1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals11/120.79 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots11/127.33 shots/match

5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/122.33 shots/match

52.7%●Possession11/1241.8%

5 corners/match●Corners11/123.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1213.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.2 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4