PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Fri, 31 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeganésRayo Vallecano
Shots5 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.96 xG/match2.28 xG/match▲
Possession34%66%●
Corners2 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls7 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Óscar Rodríguez · Leganés · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Raba · Leganés · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMiguel de la Fuente · Leganés · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSergio González · Leganés · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 73′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.37 xG · on targetSergi Guardiola · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.40 xG · on targetPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.42 xG · goalFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedMiguel de la Fuente · Leganés · 90′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Leganés: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.97 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 19 shots, 3 on target, 2.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Leganés 0.97 xG · Rayo Vallecano 2.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

7.86 shots/match▲ShotsLeganés · Rayo Vallecano12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeganésRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots7.86 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Rayo Vallecano have recorded the higher season possession share.

41%PossessionLeganés · Rayo Vallecano●49.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLeganésRayo VallecanoBaseline
Possession41%49.5%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leganés
1Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Leganés · La Liga1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Leganés favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 10 · 2 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.18 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.09 goals/match
0.78 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲1.2 xG/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.2 xG/match
7.86 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲12.8 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲12.8 shots/match
2.68 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲3.68 shots/match
4.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲4.18 shots/match
41%Possessionseason · 22/22●49.5%
2.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/22●5.18 corners/match
6.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲5 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2214.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2223%
59%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leganés7.5
Rayo Vallecano52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leganés10.8
Rayo Vallecano57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leganés27.5
Rayo Vallecano44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leganés12.5
Rayo Vallecano77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leganés62.5
Rayo Vallecano87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leganés2.5
Rayo Vallecano67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leganés20
Rayo Vallecano70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Leganés22 matchesRayo Vallecano22 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.18 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.09 goals/match
0.78 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲1.2 xG/match
7.86 shots/matchShots22/22▲12.8 shots/match
2.68 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲3.68 shots/match
41%Possession22/22●49.5%
2.68 corners/matchCorners22/22●5.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Leganés11 matchesRayo Vallecano12 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/120.83 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/12▲0.75 goals/match
0.87 xG/matchExpected goals11/12▲1.03 xG/match
8.18 shots/matchShots11/12▲10.9 shots/match
2.45 shots/matchShots on target11/122.5 shots/match
43.4%Possession11/12●48.2%
2.27 corners/matchCorners11/12●5.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1215.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.29 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeganésRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Leganés vs Rayo Vallecano — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath