PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoGirona FC
Shots17 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals2.41 xG/match▲0.99 xG/match
Possession57%●43%
Corners4 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Yáser Asprilla · Girona FC · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Gil · Girona FC · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavid López · Girona FC · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Gil · Girona FC · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuanpe · Girona FC · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBryan Gil · Girona FC · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArnau Martínez · Girona FC · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 81′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedArnau Martínez · Girona FC · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavid López · Girona FC · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetCristhian Stuani · Girona FC · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 72′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 4′ · 0.20 xG · on targetBryan Gil · Girona FC · 58′ · 0.20 xG · goalRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 82′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedIván Martín · Girona FC · 53′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 83′ · 0.27 xG · goalJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 69′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 80′ · 0.79 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.39 xG. Girona FC: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Randy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 80′Randy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 83′Bryan Gil · Girona FC · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 2.39 xG · Girona FC 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Girona FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.7%PossessionRayo Vallecano · Girona FC●58.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoGirona FCBaseline
Possession48.7%58.3%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rayo Vallecano
3Draws
2Girona FC
Girona FC — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Girona FC — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0
Rayo Vallecano — Girona FC · La Liga1–2
Rayo Vallecano — Girona FC · La Liga2–2
Girona FC — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Girona FC in 7 · 3 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.38 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.38 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.26 xG/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.14 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2110.6 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.7 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/213.81 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.48 shots/match
48.7%Possessionseason · 21/21●58.3%
5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/214.86 corners/match
5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲3.33 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲29%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Girona FC87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano56.7
Girona FC50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano44.2
Girona FC59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano82.5
Girona FC2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5
Girona FC17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano72.5
Girona FC60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano70
Girona FC40.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano21 matchesGirona FC21 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.38 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.38 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.26 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shots21/2110.6 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target21/213.81 shots/match
48.7%Possession21/21●58.3%
5 corners/match●Corners21/214.86 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.6 fouls/matchFouls21/2111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano10 matchesGirona FC11 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/110.91 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲1.27 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals10/110.82 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/119.64 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/113.18 shots/match
51.1%Possession10/11●57.5%
5.1 corners/match●Corners10/114.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1112.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoGirona FC
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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