PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Arsenal 1–0 Manchester City · Premier League

Arsenal

DWWDW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 1–0.

Shots
124
Shots on target
21
Expected goals
0.390.48
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Manchester City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Manchester City): shots 12–4, shots on target 2–1, expected goals 0.39–0.48, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City have a visible away split

moderate

Manchester City's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.6 shots/match16.4 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Manchester City16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalManchester CityBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match16.4 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against8.88 shots/match7 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

8.63 corners/match ●CornersArsenal · Manchester City6.38 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalManchester CityBaseline
Corners8.63 corners/match6.38 corners/match5.44 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots4 shotsArsenal 12 shots, Manchester City 4 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotArsenal 2 shots, Manchester City 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.39 xG0.48 xGArsenal 0.39 xG, Manchester City 0.48 xG
  • Possession49%51%Arsenal 49%, Manchester City 51%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersArsenal 5 corners, Manchester City 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls7 foulsArsenal 8 fouls, Manchester City 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Oleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEddie Nketiah · Arsenal · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 51′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEddie Nketiah · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 86′ · 0.04 xG · goalOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 4′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEddie Nketiah · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 5′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.40 xG. Manchester City: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.40 xG · Manchester City 0.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Arsenal
0Draws
4Manchester City
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League4–1
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–3
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–2
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal8 matchesManchester City8 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.13 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/80.75 goals/match
1.9 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.91 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 16.4 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 6.75 shots/match
60.6%Possession8/8● 64.5%
8.63 corners/match ●Corners8/86.38 corners/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls8/88.75 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalManchester City
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headArsenal — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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