Premier League · 2023Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Wolverhampton

WLLDW

1–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Wolverhampton	Aston Villa
Shots	8 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.68 xG/match▲	1.61 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	2 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	19 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Wolverhampton: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.63 xG. Aston Villa: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.63 xG · Aston Villa 1.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolverhampton's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Wolverhampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolverhampton's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.4 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolverhampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsWolverhampton · Aston Villa15.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Wolverhampton	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	10.9 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	14 shots/match
Shots against	17.4 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Wolverhampton

1Draws

0Aston Villa

6 May 2023Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

4 Jan 2023Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

2 Apr 2022Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

16 Oct 2021Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Wolverhampton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 10 · 3 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.38 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.5 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.95 xG/match

1.88 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.64 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲15.3 shots/match

17.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲10.9 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲5.88 shots/match

6.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.25 shots/match

45.1%Possessionseason · 8/8●49%

2.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/8●5.88 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.38 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲25%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/888%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolverhampton32.5

Aston Villa50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolverhampton28.3

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolverhampton19.2

Aston Villa66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolverhampton22.5

Aston Villa87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton97.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton2.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolverhampton35.6

Aston Villa70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Wolverhampton8 matchesAston Villa8 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.38 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.5 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.95 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots8/8▲15.3 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.88 shots/match

45.1%Possession8/8●49%

2.63 corners/matchCorners8/8●5.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Wolverhampton4 matchesAston Villa5 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/51.2 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/5▲2 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲1.56 xG/match

9.5 shots/matchShots4/5▲14.8 shots/match

2.75 shots/matchShots on target4/5▲5.2 shots/match

39.5%Possession4/5●45.4%

2.75 corners/matchCorners4/5●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4