PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionLiverpool
Shots14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.32 xG/match2.35 xG/match▲
Possession46%54%●
Corners8 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match20 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Liverpool · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSolly March · Brighton & Hove Albion · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEvan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRyan Gravenberch · Liverpool · 65′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 25′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 20′ · 0.08 xG · goalMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 31′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Liverpool · 68′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 5′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSolly March · Brighton & Hove Albion · 5′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 39′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKaoru Mitoma · Brighton & Hove Albion · 69′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 49′ · 0.27 xG · on targetMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 40′ · 0.43 xG · goalJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 84′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedRyan Gravenberch · Liverpool · 54′ · 0.64 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 78′ · 0.67 xG · goalMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 14 shots, 3 on target, 2.31 xG. Liverpool: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Simon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 20′Lewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 78′Mohamed Salah · Liverpool · 40′Mohamed Salah · Liverpool · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31 xG · Liverpool 2.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match16.4 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool have a visible away split

moderate

Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match16.1 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brighton & Hove Albion show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsBrighton & Hove Albion · Liverpool16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionLiverpoolBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match16.1 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton & Hove Albion
2Draws
1Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion — Liverpool · Premier League3–0
Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–3
Brighton & Hove Albion — Liverpool · Premier League0–2
Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 3 · 6 too close

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/82.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.13 goals/match
2.07 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/82.12 xG/match
1.76 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.45 xG/match
16.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/816.1 shots/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/814.4 shots/match
6.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/85 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/84.63 shots/match
60.6%●Possessionseason · 8/852.9%
5.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.88 corners/match
4.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲13%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion80
Liverpool62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion90.8
Liverpool70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion36.7
Liverpool50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion37.5
Liverpool77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion87.5
Liverpool82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5
Liverpool67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion82.5
Liverpool70.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion8 matchesLiverpool8 matches
2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/82.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match
2.07 xG/matchExpected goals8/82.12 xG/match
16.4 shots/matchShots8/816.1 shots/match
6.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/85 shots/match
60.6%●Possession8/852.9%
5.88 corners/matchCorners8/85.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls8/812.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion5 matchesLiverpool5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2.19 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.67 xG/match
18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512.8 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
62.6%●Possession5/546%
8 corners/match●Corners5/54.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.06 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath