PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

DLWLD
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamManchester United
Shots18 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.01 xG/match▲0.69 xG/match
Possession45%55%●
Corners9 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alex Iwobi · Fulham · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWillian · Fulham · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · Manchester United · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Dalot · Manchester United · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWillian · Fulham · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDiogo Dalot · Manchester United · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWillian · Fulham · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Pellistri · Manchester United · 71′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 83′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDiogo Dalot · Manchester United · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCalvin Bassey · Fulham · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Palhinha · Fulham · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedScott McTominay · Manchester United · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonny Evans · Manchester United · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 33′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 48′ · 0.06 xG · on targetWillian · Fulham · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWillian · Fulham · 16′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJoão Palhinha · Fulham · 61′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAnthony Martial · Manchester United · 84′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fulham: 18 shots, 2 on target, 1.01 xG. Manchester United: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.01 xG · Manchester United 0.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham have a visible home split

moderate

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match11.3 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.3 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fulham
0Draws
2Manchester United
Manchester United — Fulham · Premier League2–1
Fulham — Manchester United · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 7 · 4 too close

0.82 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.09 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.45 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.4 xG/match
1.77 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/111.69 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲14.8 shots/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1114.4 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.82 shots/match
5.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲5.18 shots/match
48.7%Possessionseason · 11/11●53.3%
5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/11●6.64 corners/match
4.64 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116.55 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham47.5
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham17.5
Manchester United59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham42.5
Manchester United39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham17.5
Manchester United52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham12.5
Manchester United17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham50
Manchester United82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham25.6
Manchester United58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham11 matchesManchester United11 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.09 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.45 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.4 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.8 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
48.7%Possession11/11●53.3%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/11●6.64 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham5 matchesManchester United5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.15 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots5/513.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
58.8%●Possession5/548.8%
7.4 corners/match●Corners5/54.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.88 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Fulham vs Manchester United — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath