Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WLLWW

6–1Full-time recap

Bournemouth

LLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Bournemouth
Shots	21 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.95 xG/match▲	0.91 xG/match
Possession	65%●	35%
Corners	12 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 15 shots, 2 on target, 1.04 xG. Bournemouth: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.04 xG · Bournemouth 0.63 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester City's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Bournemouth10.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Bournemouth	Baseline
Shots	16.6 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	6.64 shots/match	17.7 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester City have a visible home split

moderate

Manchester City's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	16.6 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.3%●PossessionManchester City · Bournemouth41.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Bournemouth	Baseline
Possession	63.3%	41.9%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester City

0Draws

0Bournemouth

25 Feb 2023Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League1–4

13 Aug 2022Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 2 too close

2.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/110.82 goals/match

0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/112.45 goals/match

2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/111.05 xG/match

0.75 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 11/112.17 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1110.8 shots/match

6.64 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1117.7 shots/match

7.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.82 shots/match

2.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/116.36 shots/match

63.3%●Possessionseason · 11/1141.9%

7 corners/match●Cornersseason · 11/114.73 corners/match

3.36 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116.82 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.36 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/119%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1164%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Bournemouth32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City92.5

Bournemouth18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City96.7

Bournemouth8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5

Bournemouth42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Bournemouth92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City92.5

Bournemouth37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70

Bournemouth43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City11 matchesBournemouth11 matches

2.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.82 goals/match

0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.45 goals/match

2 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.05 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.8 shots/match

7.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.82 shots/match

63.3%●Possession11/1141.9%

7 corners/match●Corners11/114.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.36 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City5 matchesBournemouth5 matches

3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53.4 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.22 xG/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match

60.8%●Possession5/540%

5.4 corners/match●Corners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4