Premier League · 2023Sat, 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

DLLLL

2–1Full-time recap

Burnley

LLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Burnley
Shots	13 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.11 xG/match▲	0.83 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.12 xG. Burnley: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.12 xG · Burnley 0.80 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 3 · 5 too close

0.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/100.8 goals/match

2.1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/102.5 goals/match

1.07 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/100.86 xG/match

2.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.95 xG/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/109.7 shots/match

17.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲16.2 shots/match

4.1 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/102.7 shots/match

6.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/106.5 shots/match

42.6%Possessionseason · 10/10●49.5%

5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/10●5.6 corners/match

6.3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲5.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/100%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth27.5

Burnley47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth20.8

Burnley9.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth12.5

Burnley10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth47.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth92.5

Burnley32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth37.5

Burnley62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth45

Burnley27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth10 matchesBurnley10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.8 goals/match

2.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match

1.07 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.86 xG/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109.7 shots/match

4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match

42.6%Possession10/10●49.5%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/10●5.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth6 matchesBurnley5 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/51.8 goals/match

0.91 xG/match▲Expected goals6/50.86 xG/match

11 shots/match▲Shots6/58.8 shots/match

3.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/52.6 shots/match

43.5%Possession6/5●51.6%

6 corners/match●Corners6/54.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls6/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4