Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Burnley

LWLLL

0–2Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

DWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Burnley	Crystal Palace
Shots	17 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.12 xG/match	1.3 xG/match▲
Possession	68%●	32%
Corners	12 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Burnley: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.12 xG. Crystal Palace: 4 shots, 3 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Burnley 1.12 xG · Crystal Palace 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

weak

Crystal Palace's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	10 shots/match	12 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Crystal Palace12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Burnley	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Shots	10.4 shots/match	12 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	15.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Burnley have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.2%●PossessionBurnley · Crystal Palace41.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Burnley	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	51.2%	41.2%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Burnley

2Draws

0Crystal Palace

26 Feb 2022Crystal Palace — Burnley · Premier League1–1

20 Nov 2021Burnley — Crystal Palace · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 10 · 2 too close

0.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲0.91 goals/match

2.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.18 goals/match

0.88 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.1 xG/match

1.89 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.41 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲12 shots/match

15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲13.1 shots/match

2.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.09 shots/match

6.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲3.73 shots/match

51.2%●Possessionseason · 11/1141.2%

6.18 corners/match●Cornersseason · 11/114.36 corners/match

5.09 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲45%

55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲64%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley52.5

Crystal Palace27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley6.7

Crystal Palace34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley16.7

Crystal Palace60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley2.5

Crystal Palace72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley27.5

Crystal Palace72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley77.5

Crystal Palace22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley30.6

Crystal Palace42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Burnley11 matchesCrystal Palace11 matches

0.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲0.91 goals/match

2.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.18 goals/match

0.88 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.1 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShots11/11▲12 shots/match

2.91 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.09 shots/match

51.2%●Possession11/1141.2%

6.18 corners/match●Corners11/114.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Burnley6 matchesCrystal Palace6 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.33 goals/match

0.9 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.21 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲12.3 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4 shots/match

50.8%●Possession6/639.3%

7.5 corners/match●Corners6/64.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls6/611.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.83 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4