PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Arsenal 3–1 Burnley · Premier League

Arsenal

WWDWL
3–1Historical match

Burnley

WLLLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 3–1.

Shots
168
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.950.32
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Burnley 3–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Burnley): shots 16–8, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.95–0.32, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Burnley10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBurnleyBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against8.42 shots/match15.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Burnley's recent record differs from the season

weak

Burnley's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

8.83 corners/match ●CornersArsenal · Burnley5.92 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBurnleyBaseline
Corners8.83 corners/match5.92 corners/match5.21 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots8 shotsArsenal 16 shots, Burnley 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsArsenal 6 shots, Burnley 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.95 xG0.32 xGArsenal 1.95 xG, Burnley 0.32 xG
  • Possession64%36%Arsenal 64%, Burnley 36%
  • Corners13 corners3 cornersArsenal 13 corners, Burnley 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsArsenal 8 fouls, Burnley 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luca Koleosho · Burnley · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTakehiro Tomiyasu · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJay Rodriguez · Burnley · 28′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Burnley · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Obafemi · Burnley · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJay Rodriguez · Burnley · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 74′ · 0.04 xG · goalZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 8′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosh Brownhill · Burnley · 54′ · 0.06 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.12 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 25′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 50′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 30′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.33 xG · goalWilliam Saliba · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.96 xG. Burnley: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 45′William Saliba · Arsenal · 57′Oleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 74′Josh Brownhill · Burnley · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.96 xG · Burnley 0.30 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Arsenal
1Draws
0Burnley
Arsenal — Burnley · Premier League0–0
Burnley — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Burnley in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal12 matchesBurnley12 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/120.75 goals/match
0.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/122.5 goals/match
1.79 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.83 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots12/1210.2 shots/match
5.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.08 shots/match
61% ●Possession12/1249.9%
8.83 corners/match ●Corners12/125.92 corners/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalBurnley
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headArsenal — Burnley
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required