Premier League · 2023Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDDDL

2–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa
Shots	5 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.38 xG/match	1.23 xG/match▲
Possession	27%	73%●
Corners	0 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.29 xG. Aston Villa: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.29 xG · Aston Villa 1.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Aston Villa15.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	10.6 shots/match	15.2 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	13.7 shots/match	10.3 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.36 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	2.36 goals/match	1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.1%PossessionNottingham Forest · Aston Villa●54%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Baseline
Possession	38.1%	54%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

1Draws

1Aston Villa

8 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

10 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 9 · 2 too close

1.09 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2.36 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.45 goals/match

1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.92 xG/match

1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.37 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲15.2 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲10.3 shots/match

3.45 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.73 shots/match

4.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲3.82 shots/match

38.1%Possessionseason · 11/11●54%

3.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/11●6.45 corners/match

7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.18 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1118%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest24.2

Aston Villa82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest46.7

Aston Villa65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest30

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest2.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest16.2

Aston Villa71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest11 matchesAston Villa11 matches

1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.36 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.45 goals/match

1.05 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.92 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots11/11▲15.2 shots/match

3.45 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.73 shots/match

38.1%Possession11/11●54%

3.45 corners/matchCorners11/11●6.45 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest5 matchesAston Villa6 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/61 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/62 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals5/6▲1.51 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots5/6▲14.5 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲4.83 shots/match

44.2%Possession5/6●50%

3.2 corners/matchCorners5/6●7.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls5/610.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4