PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa · Premier League

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest won 2–0.

Shots
513
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.381.23
Possession
27%73%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2–0. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Aston Villa): shots 5–13, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.38–1.23, possession 27%–73%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match ▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Aston Villa15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestAston VillaBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.36 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.1%PossessionNottingham Forest · Aston Villa● 54%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestAston VillaBaseline
Possession38.1%54%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots13 shotsNottingham Forest 5 shots, Aston Villa 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsNottingham Forest 3 shots, Aston Villa 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.38 xG1.23 xGNottingham Forest 0.38 xG, Aston Villa 1.23 xG
  • Possession27%73%Nottingham Forest 27%, Aston Villa 73%
  • Corners0 corners10 cornersNottingham Forest 0 corners, Aston Villa 10 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls9 foulsNottingham Forest 6 fouls, Aston Villa 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 46′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDouglas Luiz · Aston Villa · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 36′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 50′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 15′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 39′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 68′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 55′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.29 xG. Aston Villa: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.28 xG. · 2 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.29 xG · Aston Villa 1.28 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nottingham Forest
1Draws
1Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest11 matchesAston Villa11 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 2.36 goals/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.45 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.92 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 5.73 shots/match
38.1%Possession11/11● 54%
3.45 corners/matchCorners11/11● 6.45 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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