PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLuton TownLiverpool
Shots8 shots/match24 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.81 xG/match2.85 xG/match▲
Possession26%74%●
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls7 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Darwin Núñez · Liverpool · 16′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDiogo Jota · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCody Gakpo · Liverpool · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Gravenberch · Liverpool · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIbrahima Konaté · Liverpool · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIssa Kaboré · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIssa Kaboré · Luton Town · 15′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 72′ · 0.07 xG · on targetVirgil van Dijk · Liverpool · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 21′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJoe Gomez · Liverpool · 6′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 65′ · 0.17 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 13′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Jota · Liverpool · 33′ · 0.27 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 70′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 70′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedCody Gakpo · Liverpool · 68′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Luton Town: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.39 xG. Liverpool: 23 shots, 5 on target, 2.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 0.39 xG · Liverpool 2.63 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsLuton Town · Liverpool18.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownLiverpoolBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match18.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against16.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Luton Town have a visible home split

moderate

Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

35.5%PossessionLuton Town · Liverpool●58.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownLiverpoolBaseline
Possession35.5%58.9%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 11 · 2 too close

0.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2.18 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.91 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲2.29 xG/match
2.08 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.18 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲18.2 shots/match
16.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲12.5 shots/match
2.55 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.45 shots/match
5.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4 shots/match
35.5%Possessionseason · 11/11●58.9%
5.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/11●6.73 corners/match
5.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.73 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town2.5
Liverpool72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town21.7
Liverpool81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town21.7
Liverpool65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town92.5
Liverpool87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town57.5
Liverpool77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town62.5
Liverpool87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town40
Liverpool83.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town11 matchesLiverpool11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.18 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.91 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲2.29 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots11/11▲18.2 shots/match
2.55 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.45 shots/match
35.5%Possession11/11●58.9%
5.45 corners/matchCorners11/11●6.73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town5 matchesLiverpool6 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲1.67 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/61.33 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals5/6▲1.87 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/614.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲4.17 shots/match
40.6%Possession5/6●50.7%
7 corners/match●Corners5/65 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/612.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLuton TownLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Luton Town vs Liverpool — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath