Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

WWDWD

1–0Full-time recap

Arsenal

DWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Arsenal
Shots	9 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.04 xG/match▲	0.57 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	0 corners/match	11 corners/match●
Fouls	14 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 8 shots, 0 on target, 0.58 xG. Arsenal: 14 shots, 1 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 0.58 xG · Arsenal 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle United · Arsenal14.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	13.5 shots/match	14.4 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	11.7 shots/match	8.45 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Newcastle United

1Draws

2Arsenal

7 May 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

3 Jan 2023Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

16 May 2022Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League2–0

27 Nov 2021Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 6 · 4 too close

2.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/112.09 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.82 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/111.77 xG/match

0.99 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.82 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲14.4 shots/match

11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲8.45 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/115.27 shots/match

3.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲2.18 shots/match

53.5%Possessionseason · 11/11●60.7%

4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/11●8.45 corners/match

5.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲2.55 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/119.82 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

45%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1145%

91%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1191%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United67.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United72.5

Arsenal64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United80.8

Arsenal93.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United37.5

Arsenal27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United87.5

Arsenal7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United17.5

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United58.8

Arsenal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United11 matchesArsenal11 matches

2.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/112.09 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.82 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.77 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.4 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target11/115.27 shots/match

53.5%Possession11/11●60.7%

4.27 corners/matchCorners11/11●8.45 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/119.82 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United6 matchesArsenal5 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/51.6 goals/match

0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/50.6 goals/match

2.24 xG/match▲Expected goals6/51.61 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots6/513.8 shots/match

6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/53.8 shots/match

53.8%Possession6/5●60.2%

5 corners/matchCorners6/5●8.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls6/510.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.15 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4