Premier League · 2023Sun, 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WDWWL

3–1Full-time recap

Fulham

LWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Fulham
Shots	12 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	3.08 xG/match▲	0.93 xG/match
Possession	51%●	49%
Corners	2 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	4 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.4 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Fulham11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Fulham	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	10.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fulham have a visible away split

moderate

Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.86 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.86 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

0Draws

1Fulham

25 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League1–0

20 Oct 2022Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 1 · 2 too close

2.42 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.83 goals/match

1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.67 goals/match

2.02 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 12/121.04 xG/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 12/121.88 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1211.1 shots/match

10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1212.4 shots/match

5.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/123.58 shots/match

3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125.58 shots/match

53.8%●Possessionseason · 12/1248.8%

6.08 corners/match●Cornersseason · 12/125.08 corners/match

4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/124.42 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲25%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1258%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa62.5

Fulham47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa83.3

Fulham16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa71.7

Fulham40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa67.5

Fulham7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa17.5

Fulham25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Fulham47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa63.1

Fulham27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa12 matchesFulham12 matches

2.42 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match

1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match

2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.04 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.1 shots/match

5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.58 shots/match

53.8%●Possession12/1248.8%

6.08 corners/match●Corners12/125.08 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa6 matchesFulham7 matches

3.83 goals/match▲Goals scored6/70.86 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.86 goals/match

2.53 xG/match▲Expected goals6/70.97 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots6/78.86 shots/match

6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/73.86 shots/match

57.5%●Possession6/741.6%

4.67 corners/match●Corners6/73.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/711 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4