Premier League · 2023Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Luton Town

LDLDL

2–1Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

DLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Luton Town	Crystal Palace
Shots	8 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.94 xG/match	1.67 xG/match▲
Possession	39%	61%●
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	15 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Luton Town: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.95 xG. Crystal Palace: 16 shots, 8 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 0.95 xG · Crystal Palace 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.92 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Luton Town have a visible home split

moderate

Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.7 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Crystal Palace have recorded the higher season possession share.

35.8%PossessionLuton Town · Crystal Palace●44.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Luton Town	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	35.8%	44.7%	49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 9 · 4 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.38 goals/match

1.08 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.23 xG/match

2.06 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.38 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲12.4 shots/match

16.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲12.3 shots/match

2.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲4.38 shots/match

5.62 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.69 shots/match

35.8%Possessionseason · 13/13●44.7%

5.15 corners/match●Cornersseason · 13/134.77 corners/match

5.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/135.54 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲38%

69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town2.5

Crystal Palace32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town15

Crystal Palace33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town15.8

Crystal Palace75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town92.5

Crystal Palace57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town67.5

Crystal Palace55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town57.5

Crystal Palace32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town38.1

Crystal Palace41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town13 matchesCrystal Palace13 matches

0.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.38 goals/match

1.08 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.23 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots13/13▲12.4 shots/match

2.69 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.38 shots/match

35.8%Possession13/13●44.7%

5.15 corners/match●Corners13/134.77 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town6 matchesCrystal Palace7 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored6/71 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.43 goals/match

1.25 xG/matchExpected goals6/71.28 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots6/712.9 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target6/7▲4.57 shots/match

40.3%Possession6/7●42.4%

6.5 corners/match●Corners6/74.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls6/711.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4