PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brighton & Hove Albion won 2–3.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.931.48
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Nottingham Forest 3–2. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Brighton & Hove Albion): shots 18–10, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.93–1.48, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.15 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match14 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.4%PossessionNottingham Forest · Brighton & Hove Albion● 61.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestBrighton & Hove AlbionBaseline
Possession39.4%61.2%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shotsNottingham Forest 18 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsNottingham Forest 5 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.93 xG1.48 xGNottingham Forest 1.93 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.48 xG
  • Possession47%53%Nottingham Forest 47%, Brighton & Hove Albion 53%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersNottingham Forest 6 corners, Brighton & Hove Albion 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsNottingham Forest 12 fouls, Brighton & Hove Albion 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Moussa Niakhaté · Nottingham Forest · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Niakhaté · Nottingham Forest · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 80′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoussa Niakhaté · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Brighton & Hove Albion · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.03 xG · goalOla Aina · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJan Paul van Hecke · Brighton & Hove Albion · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDanilo Santos · Nottingham Forest · 52′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 3′ · 0.08 xG · goalRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 9′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEvan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 26′ · 0.09 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 62′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.14 xG · on targetBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 18′ · 0.16 xG · on targetRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 58′ · 0.82 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 76′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.96 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 3′Morgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 76′Evan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 26′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.96 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.37 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nottingham Forest
1Draws
0Brighton & Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest13 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion13 matches
1.23 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 2.15 goals/match
1.62 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.77 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.72 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 14 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 5.92 shots/match
39.4%Possession13/13● 61.2%
3.69 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.31 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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