Premier League · 2023Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DDLWL

2–3Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

DLDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	18 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.93 xG/match▲	1.48 xG/match
Possession	47%	53%●
Corners	6 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.96 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.96 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	2.15 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.83 shots/match	14 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.4%PossessionNottingham Forest · Brighton & Hove Albion●61.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	39.4%	61.2%	49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

1Draws

0Brighton & Hove Albion

26 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1

18 Oct 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 7 · 4 too close

1.23 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2.15 goals/match

1.62 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.77 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.72 xG/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/131.48 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲12.5 shots/match

3.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲5.92 shots/match

4.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/134.54 shots/match

39.4%Possessionseason · 13/13●61.2%

3.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●5.31 corners/match

6.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.85 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/130%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Brighton & Hove Albion87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Brighton & Hove Albion78.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest40.8

Brighton & Hove Albion42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Brighton & Hove Albion12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest42.5

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest22.5

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest13 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion13 matches

1.23 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.15 goals/match

1.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.77 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.72 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲14 shots/match

3.69 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5.92 shots/match

39.4%Possession13/13●61.2%

3.69 corners/matchCorners13/13●5.31 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest6 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion6 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.17 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.41 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots6/69.83 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.83 shots/match

44.7%Possession6/6●58.3%

3.67 corners/match●Corners6/62.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.5 fouls/matchFouls6/610.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4