PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Newcastle United 4–1 Chelsea · Premier League

4–1Historical match

Chelsea

WDLWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Newcastle United won 4–1.

Shots
147
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.360.53
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Newcastle United beat Chelsea 4–1. Recorded in this match (Newcastle United – Chelsea): shots 14–7, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.36–0.53, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.69 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.69 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots7 shotsNewcastle United 14 shots, Chelsea 7 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsNewcastle United 5 shots, Chelsea 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.36 xG0.53 xGNewcastle United 2.36 xG, Chelsea 0.53 xG
  • Possession54%46%Newcastle United 54%, Chelsea 46%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersNewcastle United 4 corners, Chelsea 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls19 foulsNewcastle United 13 fouls, Chelsea 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoelinton · Newcastle United · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLewis Miley · Newcastle United · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKieran Trippier · Newcastle United · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetReece James · Chelsea · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamaal Lascelles · Newcastle United · 51′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 36′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.11 xG · goalBenoît Badiashile · Chelsea · 32′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 83′ · 0.11 xG · goalBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 26′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedJamaal Lascelles · Newcastle United · 60′ · 0.27 xG · goalJoelinton · Newcastle United · 61′ · 0.61 xG · goalAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 13′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 14 shots, 5 on target, 2.36 xG. Chelsea: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Alexander Isak · Newcastle United · 13′Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle United · 60′Joelinton · Newcastle United · 61′Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 83′Raheem Sterling · Chelsea · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.36 xG · Chelsea 0.54 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Newcastle United
1Draws
2Chelsea
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League1–0
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0
Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Newcastle United favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Newcastle United13 matchesChelsea13 matches
2.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.69 goals/match
1.08 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
2 xG/matchExpected goals13/132.01 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 13.8 shots/match
5.85 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/135 shots/match
53.4%Possession13/13● 59.4%
4.31 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNewcastle UnitedChelsea
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headNewcastle United — Chelsea
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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