PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Chelsea 3–2 Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League

Chelsea

DLWDL
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 3–2.

Shots
818
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
2.111.14
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Brighton & Hove Albion 3–2. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Brighton & Hove Albion): shots 8–18, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 2.11–1.14, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.79 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots18 shotsChelsea 8 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shotsChelsea 5 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.11 xG1.14 xGChelsea 2.11 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.14 xG
  • Possession32%68%Chelsea 32%, Brighton & Hove Albion 68%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersChelsea 5 corners, Brighton & Hove Albion 8 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsChelsea 16 fouls, Brighton & Hove Albion 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Carlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJames Milner · Brighton & Hove Albion · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEvan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKaoru Mitoma · Brighton & Hove Albion · 82′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 43′ · 0.05 xG · goalAdam Lallana · Brighton & Hove Albion · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 86′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 80′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.11 xG · goalJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 19′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedLevi Colwill · Chelsea · 21′ · 0.24 xG · goalEvan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.29 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 17′ · 0.48 xG · goalEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 65′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 8 shots, 4 on target, 2.15 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 18 shots, 9 on target, 1.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Enzo Fernández · Chelsea · 17′Levi Colwill · Chelsea · 21′Enzo Fernández · Chelsea · 65′Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 43′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.15 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.14 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Chelsea
2Draws
2Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–2
Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League4–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League1–1
Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea14 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion14 matches
1.79 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2.14 goals/match
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
2.02 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.68 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 14.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 6.14 shots/match
57.4%Possession14/14● 61.6%
5 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.5 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headChelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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