PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordLuton Town
Shots27 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals3.47 xG/match▲0.23 xG/match
Possession69%●31%
Corners7 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Saman Ghoddos · Brentford · 27′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Mee · Brentford · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaman Ghoddos · Brentford · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBen Mee · Brentford · 56′ · 0.07 xG · goalBen Mee · Brentford · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJacob Brown · Luton Town · 76′ · 0.10 xG · goalKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 81′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 45′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 21′ · 0.27 xG · on targetFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 90′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 49′ · 0.57 xG · goalShandon Baptiste · Brentford · 82′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 27 shots, 6 on target, 3.44 xG. Luton Town: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Neal Maupay · Brentford · 49′Ben Mee · Brentford · 56′Shandon Baptiste · Brentford · 82′Jacob Brown · Luton Town · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 3.44 xG · Luton Town 0.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Luton Town11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordLuton TownBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Luton Town have a visible away split

moderate

Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.13 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.13 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 0 · 3 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/140.93 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.86 goals/match
1.97 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.02 xG/match
1.32 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/142.16 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1411.1 shots/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1417.2 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/142.57 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/145.64 shots/match
48.5%●Possessionseason · 14/1435.4%
4.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/14●5.14 corners/match
5.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/145.71 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/140%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford42.5
Luton Town2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford59.2
Luton Town7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford65.8
Luton Town14.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford87.5
Luton Town92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford32.5
Luton Town52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford32.5
Luton Town52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford47.5
Luton Town30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford14 matchesLuton Town14 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.02 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.1 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.57 shots/match
48.5%●Possession14/1435.4%
4.79 corners/matchCorners14/14●5.14 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford8 matchesLuton Town8 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match
2.08 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.84 xG/match
16.4 shots/match▲Shots8/89.13 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.25 shots/match
52.8%●Possession8/831.8%
4.25 corners/match●Corners8/84.13 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordLuton Town
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match
Brentford vs Luton Town — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath