PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Brentford 3–1 Luton Town · Premier League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brentford won 3–1.

Shots
277
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
3.470.23
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brentford beat Luton Town 3–1. Recorded in this match (Brentford – Luton Town): shots 27–7, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 3.47–0.23, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsBrentford · Luton Town11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordLuton TownBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Luton Town have a visible away split

moderate

Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.13 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.13 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots27 shots7 shotsBrentford 27 shots, Luton Town 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotBrentford 6 shots, Luton Town 1 shot
  • Expected goals3.47 xG0.23 xGBrentford 3.47 xG, Luton Town 0.23 xG
  • Possession69%31%Brentford 69%, Luton Town 31%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersBrentford 7 corners, Luton Town 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsBrentford 10 fouls, Luton Town 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Saman Ghoddos · Brentford · 27′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Mee · Brentford · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaman Ghoddos · Brentford · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBen Mee · Brentford · 56′ · 0.07 xG · goalBen Mee · Brentford · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJacob Brown · Luton Town · 76′ · 0.10 xG · goalKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 81′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 45′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 21′ · 0.27 xG · on targetFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 90′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 49′ · 0.57 xG · goalShandon Baptiste · Brentford · 82′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 27 shots, 6 on target, 3.44 xG. Luton Town: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Neal Maupay · Brentford · 49′Ben Mee · Brentford · 56′Shandon Baptiste · Brentford · 82′Jacob Brown · Luton Town · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 3.44 xG · Luton Town 0.25 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brentford favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Luton Town in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brentford14 matchesLuton Town14 matches
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
1.97 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.02 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots14/1411.1 shots/match
4.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/142.57 shots/match
48.5% ●Possession14/1435.4%
4.79 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.14 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrentfordLuton Town
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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