Premier League · 2023Fri, 15 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLLLD

0–2Full-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

LLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham Hotspur
Shots	15 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	1 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.35 xG/match	1.57 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	6 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 15 shots, 1 on target, 1.35 xG. Tottenham Hotspur: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.35 xG · Tottenham Hotspur 1.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.7%PossessionNottingham Forest · Tottenham Hotspur●60.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham Hotspur	Baseline
Possession	39.7%	60.4%	50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

0Draws

2Tottenham Hotspur

11 Mar 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1

28 Aug 2022Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Tottenham Hotspur in 8 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲2.06 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.35 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.73 xG/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/171.68 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲16.2 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/1713.4 shots/match

3.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲6.24 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲4.24 shots/match

39.7%Possessionseason · 17/17●60.4%

3.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●5.53 corners/match

6.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/176.29 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲29%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Tottenham Hotspur82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest15

Tottenham Hotspur82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest39.2

Tottenham Hotspur55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Tottenham Hotspur47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest52.5

Tottenham Hotspur62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Tottenham Hotspur62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest22.5

Tottenham Hotspur76.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest17 matchesTottenham Hotspur17 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲2.06 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.35 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.73 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots17/17▲16.2 shots/match

3.18 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲6.24 shots/match

39.7%Possession17/17●60.4%

3.65 corners/matchCorners17/17●5.53 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest8 matchesTottenham Hotspur9 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/9▲2.22 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/91.33 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals8/9▲1.43 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots8/913.3 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on target8/9▲5 shots/match

45.4%Possession8/9●60.8%

4 corners/matchCorners8/9●4.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls8/912.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.15 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4