PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Nottingham Forest 0–2 Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tottenham Hotspur won 0–2.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
16
Expected goals
1.351.57
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tottenham Hotspur beat Nottingham Forest 2–0. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Tottenham Hotspur): shots 15–12, shots on target 1–6, expected goals 1.35–1.57, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.7%PossessionNottingham Forest · Tottenham Hotspur● 60.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestTottenham HotspurBaseline
Possession39.7%60.4%50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsNottingham Forest 15 shots, Tottenham Hotspur 12 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot6 shotsNottingham Forest 1 shot, Tottenham Hotspur 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.35 xG1.57 xGNottingham Forest 1.35 xG, Tottenham Hotspur 1.57 xG
  • Possession33%67%Nottingham Forest 33%, Tottenham Hotspur 67%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersNottingham Forest 6 corners, Tottenham Hotspur 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls11 foulsNottingham Forest 16 fouls, Tottenham Hotspur 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Morgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHarry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 81′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDanilo Santos · Nottingham Forest · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 65′ · 0.05 xG · goalSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 28′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 3′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMoussa Niakhaté · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 63′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 64′ · 0.12 xG · on targetBrennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 23′ · 0.13 xG · on targetHarry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 84′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBen Davies · Tottenham Hotspur · 24′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 85′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedWilly Boly · Nottingham Forest · 49′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedHarry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 84′ · 0.21 xG · on targetPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 35′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 15 shots, 1 on target, 1.35 xG. Tottenham Hotspur: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Richarlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.35 xG · Tottenham Hotspur 1.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nottingham Forest
0Draws
2Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1
Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Tottenham Hotspur in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest17 matchesTottenham Hotspur17 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 2.06 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.35 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.73 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 16.2 shots/match
3.18 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 6.24 shots/match
39.7%Possession17/17● 60.4%
3.65 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.53 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestTottenham Hotspur
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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