Premier League · 2023Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Wolverhampton

LWLLW

1–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Wolverhampton	Nottingham Forest
Shots	10 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.17 xG/match	1.29 xG/match▲
Possession	68%●	32%
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Wolverhampton: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.17 xG. Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.17 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.26 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolverhampton, Nottingham Forest. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolverhampton, Nottingham Forest.

3.81 days▲Rest daysWolverhampton · Nottingham Forest2.81 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Wolverhampton	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	3.81 days	2.81 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.78 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.78 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Wolverhampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%●PossessionWolverhampton · Nottingham Forest40.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Wolverhampton	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	48.5%	40.1%	49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Wolverhampton

1Draws

0Nottingham Forest

1 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

15 Oct 2022Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Wolverhampton favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 4 · 2 too close

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.06 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.75 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/161.09 xG/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.54 xG/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1610.6 shots/match

14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲13.3 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.31 shots/match

5.06 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.63 shots/match

48.5%●Possessionseason · 16/1640.1%

4.19 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/163.5 corners/match

5.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲19%

94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolverhampton37.5

Nottingham Forest12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolverhampton28.3

Nottingham Forest13.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolverhampton35.8

Nottingham Forest38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolverhampton17.5

Nottingham Forest47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton97.5

Nottingham Forest47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton12.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolverhampton38.8

Nottingham Forest19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Wolverhampton16 matchesNottingham Forest16 matches

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.09 xG/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.6 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.31 shots/match

48.5%●Possession16/1640.1%

4.19 corners/match●Corners16/163.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Wolverhampton8 matchesNottingham Forest9 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/90.78 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/92.11 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals8/90.99 xG/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots8/98.78 shots/match

3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/92.89 shots/match

45.3%●Possession8/934.7%

4.88 corners/match●Corners8/93.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.1 fouls/matchFouls8/911.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.81 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4