PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Wolverhampton 1–1 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Wolverhampton and Nottingham Forest drew 1–1.

Shots
108
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.171.29
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Wolverhampton and Nottingham Forest drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Wolverhampton – Nottingham Forest): shots 10–8, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.17–1.29, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolverhampton, Nottingham Forest.

3.81 days ▲Rest daysWolverhampton · Nottingham Forest2.81 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWolverhamptonNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days3.81 days2.81 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.78 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.78 shots/match10.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Wolverhampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5% ●PossessionWolverhampton · Nottingham Forest40.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWolverhamptonNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession48.5%40.1%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots8 shotsWolverhampton 10 shots, Nottingham Forest 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsWolverhampton 4 shots, Nottingham Forest 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.17 xG1.29 xGWolverhampton 1.17 xG, Nottingham Forest 1.29 xG
  • Possession68%32%Wolverhampton 68%, Nottingham Forest 32%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersWolverhampton 4 corners, Nottingham Forest 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsWolverhampton 9 fouls, Nottingham Forest 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNélson Semedo · Wolverhampton · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Traoré · Wolverhampton · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFelipe · Nottingham Forest · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHwang Hee-chan · Wolverhampton · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 75′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHugo Bueno · Wolverhampton · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCheikhou Kouyaté · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 70′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCraig Dawson · Wolverhampton · 50′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCheikhou Kouyaté · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHarry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 14′ · 0.18 xG · goalMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 75′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 32′ · 0.57 xG · goalHarry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 70′ · 0.72 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Wolverhampton: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.17 xG. Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Matheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 32′Harry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 14′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.17 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Wolverhampton
1Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1
Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Wolverhampton favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Wolverhampton16 matchesNottingham Forest16 matches
1.31 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.09 xG/match
11.2 shots/match ▲Shots16/1610.6 shots/match
3.94 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/163.31 shots/match
48.5% ●Possession16/1640.1%
4.19 corners/match ●Corners16/163.5 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWolverhamptonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headWolverhampton — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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