PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolArsenal
Shots13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.97 xG/match▲0.74 xG/match
Possession51%●49%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Luis Díaz · Liverpool · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoe Gomez · Liverpool · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCurtis Jones · Liverpool · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoe Gomez · Liverpool · 74′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 1′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 29′ · 0.08 xG · goalMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 50′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Liverpool · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 14′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 4′ · 0.12 xG · goalGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.13 xG · on targetGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 72′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Liverpool: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.96 xG. Arsenal: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Mohamed Salah · Liverpool · 29′Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 4′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 0.96 xG · Arsenal 0.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.78 corners/matchCornersLiverpool · Arsenal●8 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolArsenalBaseline
Corners6.78 corners/match8 corners/match5.18 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Liverpool have a visible home split

moderate

Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

22.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season18.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots22.4 shots/match18.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Liverpool
1Draws
1Arsenal
Liverpool — Arsenal · Premier League2–2
Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League3–2
Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League0–2
Liverpool — Arsenal · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 5 · 4 too close

2.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/182 goals/match
0.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/180.89 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.82 xG/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.78 xG/match
18.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1815.7 shots/match
11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲8.39 shots/match
5.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/185.5 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲2.56 shots/match
59.9%Possessionseason · 18/18●59.9%
6.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●8 corners/match
4.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲2.39 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.78 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲39%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1889%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool77.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool88.3
Arsenal78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool88.3
Arsenal95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool92.5
Arsenal42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool72.5
Arsenal7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool92.5
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool86.2
Arsenal66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool18 matchesArsenal18 matches
2.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/182 goals/match
0.89 goals/matchGoals allowed18/180.89 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.82 xG/match
18.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1815.7 shots/match
5.89 shots/match▲Shots on target18/185.5 shots/match
59.9%Possession18/18●59.9%
6.78 corners/matchCorners18/18●8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls18/189.78 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool9 matchesArsenal9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/90.89 goals/match
2.37 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.56 xG/match
22.4 shots/match▲Shots9/914.7 shots/match
7.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.33 shots/match
64.7%●Possession9/960.2%
7.67 corners/match●Corners9/97.44 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls9/910.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match