PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

LWDLL
5–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalCrystal Palace
Shots21 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals3.21 xG/match▲0.35 xG/match
Possession61%●39%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jorginho · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJoachim Andersen · Crystal Palace · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathaniel Clyne · Crystal Palace · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 33′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetWill Hughes · Crystal Palace · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 47′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBen White · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChris Richards · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 11′ · 0.16 xG · goalLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 50′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.22 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.55 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 37′ · 0.60 xG · goalLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 59′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 21 shots, 7 on target, 3.08 xG. Crystal Palace: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 11′Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 37′Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 59′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 90′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 3.08 xG · Crystal Palace 0.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Crystal Palace11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalCrystal PalaceBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against8.76 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.7%●PossessionArsenal · Crystal Palace42.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession60.7%42.4%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal
1Draws
1Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Arsenal · Premier League0–1
Arsenal — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–1
Crystal Palace — Arsenal · Premier League0–2
Crystal Palace — Arsenal · Premier League3–0
Arsenal — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 0 · 2 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.05 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.62 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/211.2 xG/match
0.81 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.53 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2111.8 shots/match
8.76 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.9 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.14 shots/match
2.76 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.14 shots/match
60.7%●Possessionseason · 21/2142.4%
7.81 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/214.52 corners/match
2.76 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.19 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.62 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal87.5
Crystal Palace27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal80.8
Crystal Palace25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal94.2
Crystal Palace62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal57.5
Crystal Palace77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal7.5
Crystal Palace62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal97.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal67.5
Crystal Palace36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal21 matchesCrystal Palace21 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.05 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.62 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals21/211.2 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shots21/2111.8 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.14 shots/match
60.7%●Possession21/2142.4%
7.81 corners/match●Corners21/214.52 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.62 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal11 matchesCrystal Palace11 matches
2.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
2.24 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.2 xG/match
18.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1111.7 shots/match
6.82 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.18 shots/match
61.1%●Possession11/1140.3%
8.45 corners/match●Corners11/114.09 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.09 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

19.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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