Premier League · 2023Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

LLLLL

3–2Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
Shots	11 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.2 xG/match	1.22 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	6 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.20 xG. Nottingham Forest: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 1.20 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.24 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brentford have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.7%●PossessionBrentford · Nottingham Forest40.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Brentford	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	48.7%	40.1%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brentford

2Draws

0Nottingham Forest

1 Oct 2023Nottingham Forest — Brentford · Premier League1–1

29 Apr 2023Brentford — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1

5 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest — Brentford · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 4 too close

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/211.24 goals/match

1.65 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/211.81 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/211.2 xG/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/211.53 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2111 shots/match

13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2113.5 shots/match

4.35 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/213.33 shots/match

4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/214.95 shots/match

48.7%●Possessionseason · 20/2140.1%

4.9 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/213.71 corners/match

5.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/216.38 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2111.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2114%

80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford47.5

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford42.5

Nottingham Forest19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford55

Nottingham Forest35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford67.5

Nottingham Forest62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford42.5

Nottingham Forest57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford37.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford41.2

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford20 matchesNottingham Forest21 matches

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored20/211.24 goals/match

1.65 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/211.81 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals20/211.2 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots20/2111 shots/match

4.35 shots/match▲Shots on target20/213.33 shots/match

48.7%●Possession20/2140.1%

4.9 corners/match●Corners20/213.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls20/2111.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford11 matchesNottingham Forest11 matches

1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match

1.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.09 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.24 xG/match

14.5 shots/match▲Shots11/119.64 shots/match

4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.18 shots/match

51.3%●Possession11/1136.5%

5 corners/match●Corners11/113.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4