Premier League · 2023Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

WWWWL

0–4Full-time recap

Liverpool

WDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.37 xG/match	1.57 xG/match▲
Possession	39%	61%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 11 shots, 1 on target, 1.35 xG. Liverpool: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.35 xG · Liverpool 1.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.4 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Liverpool18.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Liverpool	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	18.8 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	15.3 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Liverpool have a visible away split

moderate

Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season18.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.4 shots/match	18.8 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth

0Draws

2Liverpool

19 Aug 2023Liverpool — Bournemouth · Premier League3–1

11 Mar 2023Bournemouth — Liverpool · Premier League1–0

27 Aug 2022Liverpool — Bournemouth · Premier League9–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 11 · 2 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/21▲2.24 goals/match

1.95 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/21▲0.86 goals/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/21▲2.21 xG/match

1.66 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/21▲1.15 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/21▲18.8 shots/match

15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/21▲11.3 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/21▲6.57 shots/match

5.35 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/21▲3.29 shots/match

43.5%Possessionseason · 20/21●60.5%

5.9 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/21●6.57 corners/match

6.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/21▲4.81 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2112 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/21▲38%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/21▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth32.5

Liverpool82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth47.5

Liverpool94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth19.2

Liverpool89.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5

Liverpool92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth82.5

Liverpool72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth72.5

Liverpool87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth63.8

Liverpool87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth20 matchesLiverpool21 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored20/21▲2.24 goals/match

1.95 goals/matchGoals allowed20/21▲0.86 goals/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals20/21▲2.21 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots20/21▲18.8 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target20/21▲6.57 shots/match

43.5%Possession20/21●60.5%

5.9 corners/matchCorners20/21●6.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2112 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth10 matchesLiverpool11 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲1.91 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲0.91 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals10/11▲1.64 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShots10/11▲14.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲5 shots/match

42.8%Possession10/11●56.9%

6.3 corners/match●Corners10/115.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1112.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/119.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4