PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Mon, 22 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionWolverhampton
Shots11 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.05 xG/match1.15 xG/match▲
Possession72%●28%
Corners8 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Evan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 1′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJan Paul van Hecke · Brighton & Hove Albion · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCraig Dawson · Wolverhampton · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Wolverhampton · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMario Lemina · Wolverhampton · 81′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 11′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 3′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 52′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 42′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 46′ · 0.18 xG · on targetPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 30′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 11′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedJan Paul van Hecke · Brighton & Hove Albion · 26′ · 0.26 xG · on targetMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 46′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 79′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.05 xG. Wolverhampton: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.05 xG · Wolverhampton 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.81 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible home split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.9%●PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Wolverhampton46.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionWolverhamptonBaseline
Possession61.9%46.9%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Brighton & Hove Albion
0Draws
1Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–4
Brighton & Hove Albion — Wolverhampton · Premier League6–0
Wolverhampton — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–3
Wolverhampton — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–3
Brighton & Hove Albion — Wolverhampton · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 2 · 3 too close

1.81 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.43 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.48 goals/match
1.75 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/211.35 xG/match
1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.64 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2111.3 shots/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.9 shots/match
6.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.1 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.67 shots/match
61.9%●Possessionseason · 21/2146.9%
5.24 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/214.33 corners/match
3.9 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.71 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲19%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2186%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5
Wolverhampton37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion77.5
Wolverhampton31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5
Wolverhampton52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion22.5
Wolverhampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5
Wolverhampton97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5
Wolverhampton12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion66.2
Wolverhampton39.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion21 matchesWolverhampton21 matches
1.81 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.43 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.48 goals/match
1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals21/211.35 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shots21/2111.3 shots/match
6.29 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.1 shots/match
61.9%●Possession21/2146.9%
5.24 corners/match●Corners21/214.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion11 matchesWolverhampton11 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.27 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.55 goals/match
2.08 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.38 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shots11/1111.7 shots/match
7.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.09 shots/match
63.3%●Possession11/1148.8%
7.64 corners/match●Corners11/113.36 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/123.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 22 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionWolverhampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath