Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

DDWLW

3–0Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

LWLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	12 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.3 xG/match	1.34 xG/match▲
Possession	30%	70%●
Corners	2 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fulham: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.27 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.27 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.44 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham have a visible home split

moderate

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.9%PossessionFulham · Brighton & Hove Albion●62.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fulham	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	49.9%	62.6%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fulham

1Draws

0Brighton & Hove Albion

29 Oct 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Fulham · Premier League1–1

18 Feb 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Fulham · Premier League0–1

30 Aug 2022Fulham — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 9 · 3 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.81 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/271.63 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/27▲1.7 xG/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.43 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲15.1 shots/match

14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11.8 shots/match

4.48 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲6.11 shots/match

5.26 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.33 shots/match

49.9%Possessionseason · 27/27●62.6%

5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/27●5.56 corners/match

4.93 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.07 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.96 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2711%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham52.5

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham40

Brighton & Hove Albion77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham44.2

Brighton & Hove Albion66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham17.5

Brighton & Hove Albion12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham12.5

Brighton & Hove Albion37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham52.5

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham35

Brighton & Hove Albion65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham27 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion27 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.81 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.63 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲1.7 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots27/27▲15.1 shots/match

4.48 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲6.11 shots/match

49.9%Possession27/27●62.6%

5.44 corners/matchCorners27/27●5.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.96 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham14 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion14 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.57 goals/match

1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142 goals/match

1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.45 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.6 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.21 shots/match

56.3%Possession14/14●61.4%

6.21 corners/match●Corners14/143.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.71 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4