PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Luton Town 2–3 Aston Villa · Premier League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 2–3.

Shots
1412
Shots on target
58
Expected goals
1.771.95
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Luton Town 3–2. Recorded in this match (Luton Town – Aston Villa): shots 14–12, shots on target 5–8, expected goals 1.77–1.95, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.19 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsLuton Town · Aston Villa14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownAston VillaBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match14.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against16.9 shots/match10.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

41%PossessionLuton Town · Aston Villa● 55.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownAston VillaBaseline
Possession41%55.7%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots12 shotsLuton Town 14 shots, Aston Villa 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots8 shotsLuton Town 5 shots, Aston Villa 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.77 xG1.95 xGLuton Town 1.77 xG, Aston Villa 1.95 xG
  • Possession47%53%Luton Town 47%, Aston Villa 53%
  • Corners8 corners6 cornersLuton Town 8 corners, Aston Villa 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls19 foulsLuton Town 8 fouls, Aston Villa 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Doughty · Luton Town · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Doughty · Luton Town · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.08 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 23′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAndros Townsend · Luton Town · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 76′ · 0.09 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 24′ · 0.10 xG · goalClément Lenglet · Aston Villa · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTeden Mengi · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDouglas Luiz · Aston Villa · 16′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 14′ · 0.23 xG · on targetLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 89′ · 0.29 xG · goalOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 38′ · 0.31 xG · goalCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 72′ · 0.31 xG · goalTahith Chong · Luton Town · 66′ · 0.32 xG · goalReece Burke · Luton Town · 66′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 2′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedReece Burke · Luton Town · 66′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Luton Town: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.27 xG. Aston Villa: 12 shots, 8 on target, 1.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Tahith Chong · Luton Town · 66′Carlton Morris · Luton Town · 72′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 24′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 38′Lucas Digne · Aston Villa · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 2.27 xG · Aston Villa 1.98 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Luton Town favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Luton Town26 matchesAston Villa27 matches
1.42 goals/matchGoals scored26/27▲ 2.19 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowed26/27▲ 1.37 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals26/27▲ 1.9 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots26/27▲ 14.7 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on target26/27▲ 5.74 shots/match
41%Possession26/27● 55.7%
5.69 corners/matchCorners26/27● 6.22 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2710.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLuton TownAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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