Premier League · 2023Mon, 11 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LLWDD

3–2Full-time recap

Newcastle United

DWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Newcastle United
Shots	12 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.57 xG/match▲	0.74 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	0 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 12 shots, 7 on target, 1.61 xG. Newcastle United: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.61 xG · Newcastle United 0.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.74 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.74 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea

1Draws

2Newcastle United

25 Nov 2023Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1

28 May 2023Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1

12 Nov 2022Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League1–0

13 Mar 2022Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

30 Oct 2021Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 2 · 9 too close

1.74 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/28▲2.11 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/281.71 goals/match

1.87 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/281.85 xG/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/281.77 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2813.5 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2814.1 shots/match

5.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/285.21 shots/match

5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/285.54 shots/match

58.4%●Possessionseason · 27/2852.9%

4.89 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/284.61 corners/match

4.93 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/284.96 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2810.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/28▲29%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2886%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea72.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea57.5

Newcastle United65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea50.8

Newcastle United35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea7.5

Newcastle United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea92.5

Newcastle United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea42.5

Newcastle United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea61.2

Newcastle United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea27 matchesNewcastle United28 matches

1.74 goals/matchGoals scored27/28▲2.11 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed27/281.71 goals/match

1.87 xG/matchExpected goals27/281.85 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots27/2813.5 shots/match

5.07 shots/matchShots on target27/285.21 shots/match

58.4%●Possession27/2852.9%

4.89 corners/match●Corners27/284.61 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls27/2810.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea13 matchesNewcastle United14 matches

1.77 goals/matchGoals scored13/141.79 goals/match

1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/142.29 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals13/141.39 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1410.4 shots/match

5.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/144.07 shots/match

58.2%●Possession13/1451.9%

5.31 corners/match●Corners13/143.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1410.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.21 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 12 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4