PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 15:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolManchester City
Shots19 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals2.7 xG/match▲1.56 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners7 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVirgil van Dijk · Liverpool · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJarell Quansah · Liverpool · 80′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedConor Bradley · Liverpool · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 65′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoe Gomez · Liverpool · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 8′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 16′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 39′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Liverpool · 42′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 31′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 89′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAlexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 84′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 58′ · 0.36 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 71′ · 0.36 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Liverpool · 63′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 50′ · 0.82 xG · goalJohn Stones · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.86 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Liverpool: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.76 xG. Manchester City: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 50′John Stones · Manchester City · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 2.76 xG · Manchester City 1.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.25 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.04 corners/matchCornersLiverpool · Manchester City●7.82 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolManchester CityBaseline
Corners7.04 corners/match7.82 corners/match5.23 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Liverpool have a visible home split

moderate

Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

24.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots24.1 shots/match19.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Liverpool
3Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Liverpool · Premier League1–1
Manchester City — Liverpool · Premier League4–1
Liverpool — Manchester City · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Liverpool · Premier League2–2
Liverpool — Manchester City · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 4 · 5 too close

2.32 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/282.25 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281 goals/match
2.27 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/282.06 xG/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.99 xG/match
19.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2818 shots/match
11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲8.29 shots/match
6.82 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/277.11 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/27▲3.11 shots/match
60.6%Possessionseason · 28/28●65.2%
7.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/28●7.82 corners/match
4.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲3.61 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/288.25 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2829%
96%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2893%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool77.5
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool94.2
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool87.5
Manchester City91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool92.5
Manchester City57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool77.5
Manchester City2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool87.5
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool88.8
Manchester City72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool28 matchesManchester City28 matches
2.32 goals/matchGoals scored28/282.25 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281 goals/match
2.27 xG/match▲Expected goals28/282.06 xG/match
19.4 shots/match▲Shots28/2818 shots/match
6.82 shots/matchShots on target28/277.11 shots/match
60.6%Possession28/28●65.2%
7.04 corners/matchCorners28/28●7.82 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFouls28/288.25 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool14 matchesManchester City14 matches
2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/142.07 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.14 goals/match
2.87 xG/match▲Expected goals14/142.19 xG/match
24.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1418.5 shots/match
8.93 shots/match▲Shots on target14/148.29 shots/match
62.9%Possession14/14●63.7%
8.07 corners/match●Corners14/147.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls14/147.93 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.03 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.01 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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