PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brighton & Hove Albion won 1–0.

Shots
109
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.430.7
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Nottingham Forest 1–0. Recorded in this match (Brighton & Hove Albion – Nottingham Forest): shots 10–9, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.43–0.7, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.6% ●PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Nottingham Forest40%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession62.6%40%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsBrighton & Hove Albion · Nottingham Forest11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots15 shots/match11 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible home split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match15 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 10 shots, Nottingham Forest 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 3 shots, Nottingham Forest 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.43 xG0.7 xGBrighton & Hove Albion 0.43 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.7 xG
  • Possession64%36%Brighton & Hove Albion 64%, Nottingham Forest 36%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersBrighton & Hove Albion 6 corners, Nottingham Forest 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls14 foulsBrighton & Hove Albion 14 fouls, Nottingham Forest 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Brighton & Hove Albion
1Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–3
Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion28 matchesNottingham Forest28 matches
1.79 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.21 goals/match
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.79 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/281.24 xG/match
15 shots/match ▲Shots28/2811 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.54 shots/match
62.6% ●Possession28/2840%
5.57 corners/match ●Corners28/283.68 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headBrighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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