Premier League · 2023Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WLWDL

1–0Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Nottingham Forest
Shots	10 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.43 xG/match	0.7 xG/match▲
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	6 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.6%●PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Nottingham Forest40%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	62.6%	40%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15 shots/match▲ShotsBrighton & Hove Albion · Nottingham Forest11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	11 shots/match	13.4 shots/match
Shots against	11.7 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible home split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.3 shots/match	15 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton & Hove Albion

1Draws

1Nottingham Forest

25 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–3

26 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1

18 Oct 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 3 too close

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.21 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.79 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/281.24 xG/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/281.49 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811 shots/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2813.4 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.54 shots/match

4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.57 shots/match

62.6%●Possessionseason · 28/2840%

5.57 corners/match●Cornersseason · 28/283.68 corners/match

4.04 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/286.64 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2814%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2871%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5

Nottingham Forest10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion75.8

Nottingham Forest15.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion69.2

Nottingham Forest49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion12.5

Nottingham Forest47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion37.5

Nottingham Forest57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion63.8

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion28 matchesNottingham Forest28 matches

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.21 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.79 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals28/281.24 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots28/2811 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.54 shots/match

62.6%●Possession28/2840%

5.57 corners/match●Corners28/283.68 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion14 matchesNottingham Forest14 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.07 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.07 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.24 xG/match

17.3 shots/match▲Shots14/149.5 shots/match

6.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.43 shots/match

63.9%●Possession14/1438.3%

7.43 corners/match●Corners14/143.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4