Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWDDW

2–2Full-time recap

Burnley

LLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Burnley
Shots	33 shots/match▲	18 shots/match
Shots on target	13 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Expected goals	4.26 xG/match▲	1.64 xG/match
Possession	69%●	31%
Corners	12 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 33 shots, 13 on target, 4.34 xG. Burnley: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 4.34 xG · Burnley 1.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.75 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley have a visible away split

moderate

Burnley's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.93 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.93 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.8%●PossessionChelsea · Burnley46.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Burnley	Baseline
Possession	58.8%	46.1%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea

1Draws

0Burnley

7 Oct 2023Burnley — Chelsea · Premier League1–4

5 Mar 2022Burnley — Chelsea · Premier League0–4

6 Nov 2021Chelsea — Burnley · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 2 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/301.03 goals/match

1.68 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/302.17 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/301.01 xG/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/301.87 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/3010.9 shots/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/3015.8 shots/match

5.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/303.5 shots/match

5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/306.23 shots/match

58.8%●Possessionseason · 28/3046.1%

5.14 corners/match●Cornersseason · 28/304.87 corners/match

4.89 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/306.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/3011.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/307%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/3063%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea72.5

Burnley42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea60.8

Burnley7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea44.2

Burnley12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea7.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea87.5

Burnley52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea47.5

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea63.8

Burnley26.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea28 matchesBurnley30 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored28/301.03 goals/match

1.68 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/302.17 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals28/301.01 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots28/3010.9 shots/match

5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target28/303.5 shots/match

58.8%●Possession28/3046.1%

5.14 corners/match●Corners28/304.87 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls28/3011.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea14 matchesBurnley15 matches

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored14/151.07 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/152 goals/match

2.22 xG/match▲Expected goals14/150.85 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots14/158.93 shots/match

5.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/153.27 shots/match

58.9%●Possession14/1541.1%

5.79 corners/match●Corners14/153.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls14/1512.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

18.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4