PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaWolverhampton
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.98 xG/match1.49 xG/match▲
Possession48%52%●
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Max Kilman · Wolverhampton · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Wolverhampton · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Lemina · Wolverhampton · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNélson Semedo · Wolverhampton · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeon Chiwome · Wolverhampton · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPau Torres · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNathan Fraser · Wolverhampton · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMario Lemina · Wolverhampton · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 36′ · 0.07 xG · goalEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 65′ · 0.07 xG · goalMatt Doherty · Wolverhampton · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 66′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 10′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 52′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMario Lemina · Wolverhampton · 56′ · 0.16 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 28′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDiego Carlos · Aston Villa · 47′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 15′ · 0.66 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.98 xG. Wolverhampton: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 36′Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.98 xG · Wolverhampton 1.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolverhampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Wolverhampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolverhampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolverhampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Wolverhampton11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaWolverhamptonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Aston Villa
2Draws
3Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1
Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0
Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1
Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1
Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 0 · 2 too close

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/291.45 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/291.59 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/291.37 xG/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/291.71 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/2911.8 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/2914.2 shots/match
5.53 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/294.24 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/295 shots/match
55.1%●Possessionseason · 30/2948%
6.3 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/294.28 corners/match
4.37 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/295.76 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/2912.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/2917%
87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/2979%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5
Wolverhampton47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa72.5
Wolverhampton34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa80.8
Wolverhampton45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5
Wolverhampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa42.5
Wolverhampton92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5
Wolverhampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa66.2
Wolverhampton42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa30 matchesWolverhampton29 matches
2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored30/291.45 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/291.59 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals30/291.37 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots30/2911.8 shots/match
5.53 shots/match▲Shots on target30/294.24 shots/match
55.1%●Possession30/2948%
6.3 corners/match●Corners30/294.28 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls30/2912.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa15 matchesWolverhampton15 matches
2.47 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.33 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.67 goals/match
2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.41 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1512 shots/match
5.93 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.33 shots/match
55.2%●Possession15/1547.3%
5.87 corners/match●Corners15/153.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaWolverhampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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