Premier League · 2023Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

DWWWD

0–0Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Arsenal
Shots	12 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	1 shots/match	2 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match▲	0.66 xG/match
Possession	73%●	27%
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	20 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.03 xG. Arsenal: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.03 xG · Arsenal 0.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	2.17 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.79 corners/match●CornersManchester City · Arsenal7.52 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Arsenal	Baseline
Corners	7.79 corners/match	7.52 corners/match	5.33 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Manchester City

0Draws

1Arsenal

8 Oct 2023Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

26 Apr 2023Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League4–1

15 Feb 2023Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–3

1 Jan 2022Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–2

28 Aug 2021Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 6 · 5 too close

2.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲2.41 goals/match

0.97 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲0.83 goals/match

2.02 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/292 xG/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/29▲0.72 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2916.7 shots/match

8.21 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/298.41 shots/match

6.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/295.93 shots/match

3.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/29▲2.41 shots/match

65.5%●Possessionseason · 29/2960.7%

7.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/297.52 corners/match

3.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲2.79 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.28 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/299.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲41%

90%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2986%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City91.7

Arsenal90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5

Arsenal95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5

Arsenal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Arsenal7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Arsenal92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City72.5

Arsenal68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City29 matchesArsenal29 matches

2.17 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲2.41 goals/match

0.97 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲0.83 goals/match

2.02 xG/matchExpected goals29/292 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shots29/2916.7 shots/match

6.89 shots/match▲Shots on target28/295.93 shots/match

65.5%●Possession29/2960.7%

7.79 corners/match●Corners29/297.52 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.28 fouls/matchFouls29/299.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City15 matchesArsenal15 matches

2.27 goals/matchGoals scored15/152.27 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.73 goals/match

1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.72 xG/match

17.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1515.5 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/155.07 shots/match

67.1%●Possession15/1561.2%

8.27 corners/match●Corners15/156.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4