PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 13 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthManchester United
Shots20 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.64 xG/match▲1.26 xG/match
Possession43%57%●
Corners7 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Maguire · Manchester United · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKobbie Mainoo · Manchester United · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Aarons · Bournemouth · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuis Sinisterra · Bournemouth · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 36′ · 0.03 xG · goalJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 30′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 56′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 19′ · 0.11 xG · on targetDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 16′ · 0.12 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 58′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 31′ · 0.16 xG · goalMarcus Rashford · Manchester United · 18′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 43′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 43′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 65′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 20 shots, 5 on target, 1.73 xG. Manchester United: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 16′Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 36′Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 31′Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.73 xG · Manchester United 1.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United.

7.1 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Manchester United6.08 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBournemouthManchester UnitedBaseline
Rest days7.1 days6.08 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Manchester United14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match14 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match17.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth
0Draws
2Manchester United
Manchester United — Bournemouth · Premier League0–3
Bournemouth — Manchester United · Premier League0–1
Manchester United — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 2 · 8 too close

1.47 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/321.47 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.5 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 32/321.49 xG/match
1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 32/321.87 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/3214 shots/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3217.9 shots/match
4.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/324.81 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/325.41 shots/match
44.7%Possessionseason · 32/32●50%
6.31 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/325.94 corners/match
5.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/327.53 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3210.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲25%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3278%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth37.5
Manchester United52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth55
Manchester United50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth35
Manchester United34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5
Manchester United37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth77.5
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth73.1
Manchester United51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth32 matchesManchester United32 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored32/321.47 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1.5 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals32/321.49 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots32/3214 shots/match
4.88 shots/matchShots on target32/324.81 shots/match
44.7%Possession32/32●50%
6.31 corners/match●Corners32/325.94 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.3 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth17 matchesManchester United17 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.41 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.53 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.33 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.5 shots/match
5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.18 shots/match
45.9%Possession17/17●47%
7.24 corners/match●Corners17/174.06 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.08 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match