Premier League · 2023Sat, 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDDWL

2–2Full-time recap

Wolverhampton

LWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Wolverhampton
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.92 xG/match▲	1.09 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 18 shots, 9 on target, 1.98 xG. Wolverhampton: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.98 xG · Wolverhampton 1.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton.

5.88 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Wolverhampton7 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Wolverhampton	Baseline
Rest days	5.88 days	7 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Wolverhampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.4%PossessionNottingham Forest · Wolverhampton●48.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Wolverhampton	Baseline
Possession	40.4%	48.6%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

2Draws

1Wolverhampton

9 Dec 2023Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

1 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

15 Oct 2022Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 6 · 4 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/32▲1.44 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/32▲1.59 goals/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 33/321.35 xG/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 33/321.69 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3211.8 shots/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3214.2 shots/match

3.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/32▲4.25 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/325.13 shots/match

40.4%Possessionseason · 33/32●48.6%

3.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/32●4.16 corners/match

6.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/32▲5.88 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3212.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/32▲16%

76%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/32▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Wolverhampton47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest20.8

Wolverhampton32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest48.3

Wolverhampton43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest77.5

Wolverhampton12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Wolverhampton92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Wolverhampton12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest28.8

Wolverhampton41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest33 matchesWolverhampton32 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored33/32▲1.44 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed33/32▲1.59 goals/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals33/321.35 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots33/3211.8 shots/match

3.91 shots/matchShots on target33/32▲4.25 shots/match

40.4%Possession33/32●48.6%

3.91 corners/matchCorners33/32●4.16 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls33/3212.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest17 matchesWolverhampton17 matches

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.35 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.65 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.36 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.7 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on target17/174.18 shots/match

42.4%Possession17/17●47.8%

4.29 corners/match●Corners17/173.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4