PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Tottenham Hotspur 3–1 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tottenham Hotspur won 3–1.

Shots
1713
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
1.551.55
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tottenham Hotspur beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. Recorded in this match (Tottenham Hotspur – Nottingham Forest): shots 17–13, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 1.55–1.55, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.7% ●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Nottingham Forest40.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTottenham HotspurNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession61.7%40.2%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsTottenham Hotspur · Nottingham Forest11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTottenham HotspurNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots13 shotsTottenham Hotspur 17 shots, Nottingham Forest 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsTottenham Hotspur 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.55 xG1.55 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.55 xG, Nottingham Forest 1.55 xG
  • Possession64%36%Tottenham Hotspur 64%, Nottingham Forest 36%
  • Corners12 corners2 cornersTottenham Hotspur 12 corners, Nottingham Forest 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsTottenham Hotspur 11 fouls, Nottingham Forest 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Tottenham Hotspur
0Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2
Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1
Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tottenham Hotspur favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur31 matchesNottingham Forest32 matches
2.1 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/321.25 goals/match
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/321.75 goals/match
1.79 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/321.27 xG/match
15.5 shots/match ▲Shots31/3211.4 shots/match
5.77 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/323.75 shots/match
61.7% ●Possession31/3240.2%
6.1 corners/match ●Corners31/323.72 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls31/3211.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Apr 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTottenham HotspurNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headTottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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