Premier League · 2023Sun, 7 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

WWLWD

3–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Nottingham Forest
Shots	17 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.55 xG/match	1.55 xG/match
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	12 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.7%●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Nottingham Forest40.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	61.7%	40.2%	49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.2 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsTottenham Hotspur · Nottingham Forest11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Shots	15.5 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	12.8 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Tottenham Hotspur

0Draws

0Nottingham Forest

15 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

11 Mar 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1

28 Aug 2022Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Tottenham Hotspur favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 3 too close

2.1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/321.25 goals/match

1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/321.75 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 31/321.27 xG/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/32▲1.45 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3211.4 shots/match

12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3213.5 shots/match

5.77 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/323.75 shots/match

4.42 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/324.53 shots/match

61.7%●Possessionseason · 31/3240.2%

6.1 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/323.72 corners/match

6.23 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/326.81 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3211.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3213%

97%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur87.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham Hotspur80.8

Nottingham Forest19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham Hotspur72.5

Nottingham Forest50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham Hotspur22.5

Nottingham Forest67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur42.5

Nottingham Forest67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur72.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham Hotspur69.4

Nottingham Forest27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur31 matchesNottingham Forest32 matches

2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored31/321.25 goals/match

1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/321.75 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals31/321.27 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots31/3211.4 shots/match

5.77 shots/match▲Shots on target31/323.75 shots/match

61.7%●Possession31/3240.2%

6.1 corners/match●Corners31/323.72 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls31/3211.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Tottenham Hotspur16 matchesNottingham Forest16 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.06 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.31 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.1 shots/match

6.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.75 shots/match

62.2%●Possession16/1638.3%

7 corners/match●Corners16/163.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.94 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples31 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Apr 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4