PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

LLDWL
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonNottingham Forest
Shots7 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.34 xG/match0.95 xG/match▲
Possession40%60%●
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ola Aina · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 76′ · 0.03 xG · goalVitaliy Mykolenko · Everton · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIdrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 29′ · 0.04 xG · goalJarrad Branthwaite · Everton · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 27′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDwight McNeil · Everton · 78′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 5′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 40′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 40′ · 0.21 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 60′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Everton: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.34 xG. Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 29′Dwight McNeil · Everton · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 0.34 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Everton
2Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League0–1
Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League2–2
Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 5 too close

1.03 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/34▲1.24 goals/match
1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 33/341.76 goals/match
1.47 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 33/341.28 xG/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 33/341.41 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 33/3411.5 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/3413.2 shots/match
4.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/343.88 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/344.5 shots/match
40.3%Possessionseason · 33/34●40.9%
4.85 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/343.91 corners/match
6.09 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/346.62 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3411.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3412%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/34▲74%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton7.5
Nottingham Forest12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton29.2
Nottingham Forest19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton65.8
Nottingham Forest50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton97.5
Nottingham Forest57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton90
Nottingham Forest67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton37.5
Nottingham Forest7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton51.9
Nottingham Forest28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton33 matchesNottingham Forest34 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored33/34▲1.24 goals/match
1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed33/341.76 goals/match
1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals33/341.28 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots33/3411.5 shots/match
4.36 shots/match▲Shots on target33/343.88 shots/match
40.3%Possession33/34●40.9%
4.85 corners/match●Corners33/343.91 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls33/3411.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton16 matchesNottingham Forest17 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/171 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/172.06 goals/match
1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals16/171.29 xG/match
15.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1710 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target16/173.71 shots/match
41.5%●Possession16/1739.5%
5 corners/match●Corners16/173.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1712.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.73 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.94 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples33 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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