PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Everton 2–0 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

Everton

LLDWL
2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Everton won 2–0.

Shots
78
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.340.95
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Everton beat Nottingham Forest 2–0. Recorded in this match (Everton – Nottingham Forest): shots 7–8, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.34–0.95, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots8 shotsEverton 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsEverton 4 shots, Nottingham Forest 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.34 xG0.95 xGEverton 0.34 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.95 xG
  • Possession40%60%Everton 40%, Nottingham Forest 60%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersEverton 6 corners, Nottingham Forest 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls9 foulsEverton 15 fouls, Nottingham Forest 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ola Aina · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 76′ · 0.03 xG · goalVitaliy Mykolenko · Everton · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIdrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 29′ · 0.04 xG · goalJarrad Branthwaite · Everton · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 27′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDwight McNeil · Everton · 78′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 5′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 40′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 40′ · 0.21 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 60′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Everton: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.34 xG. Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 29′Dwight McNeil · Everton · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 0.34 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.97 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Everton
2Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League0–1
Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League2–2
Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Everton favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Everton33 matchesNottingham Forest34 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored33/34▲ 1.24 goals/match
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/341.76 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/341.28 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots33/3411.5 shots/match
4.36 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/343.88 shots/match
40.3%Possession33/34● 40.9%
4.85 corners/match ●Corners33/343.91 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls33/3411.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsEvertonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headEverton — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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