Premier League · 2023Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

DWLDW

3–1Full-time recap

Bournemouth

WWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Bournemouth
Shots	15 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.51 xG/match▲	1.77 xG/match
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	8 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.47 xG. Bournemouth: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.47 xG · Bournemouth 1.80 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	14 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.38 corners/match●CornersAston Villa · Bournemouth6.24 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	6.38 corners/match	6.24 corners/match	5.35 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7%●PossessionAston Villa · Bournemouth44.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Bournemouth	Baseline
Possession	54.7%	44.7%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

1Draws

1Bournemouth

3 Dec 2023Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–2

18 Mar 2023Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

6 Aug 2022Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 4 too close

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/331.45 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/331.82 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/331.49 xG/match

1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/331.57 xG/match

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/3314.1 shots/match

11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3313.8 shots/match

5.26 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/334.91 shots/match

4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/335.24 shots/match

54.7%●Possessionseason · 34/3344.7%

6.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/336.24 corners/match

4.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/335.58 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3313.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3321%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3382%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5

Bournemouth37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa64.2

Bournemouth52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa75.8

Bournemouth35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa27.5

Bournemouth87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa42.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa82.5

Bournemouth77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa60

Bournemouth73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa34 matchesBournemouth33 matches

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored34/331.45 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/331.82 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals34/331.49 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots34/3314.1 shots/match

5.26 shots/match▲Shots on target34/334.91 shots/match

54.7%●Possession34/3344.7%

6.38 corners/match●Corners34/336.24 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls34/3313.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa17 matchesBournemouth16 matches

2.53 goals/match▲Goals scored17/161.56 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/162.13 goals/match

2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals17/161.51 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots17/1613.6 shots/match

5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/164.63 shots/match

56.1%●Possession17/1643.4%

6.29 corners/match●Corners17/165.19 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls17/1613.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4