PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth · Premier League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 3–1.

Shots
1514
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
2.511.77
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 3–1. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Bournemouth): shots 15–14, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 2.51–1.77, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match14 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.38 corners/match ●CornersAston Villa · Bournemouth6.24 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaBournemouthBaseline
Corners6.38 corners/match6.24 corners/match5.35 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7% ●PossessionAston Villa · Bournemouth44.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaBournemouthBaseline
Possession54.7%44.7%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots14 shotsAston Villa 15 shots, Bournemouth 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsAston Villa 5 shots, Bournemouth 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.51 xG1.77 xGAston Villa 2.51 xG, Bournemouth 1.77 xG
  • Possession56%44%Aston Villa 56%, Bournemouth 44%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersAston Villa 8 corners, Bournemouth 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls14 foulsAston Villa 8 fouls, Bournemouth 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 52′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 83′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 62′ · 0.11 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 78′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 25′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.20 xG · goalEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.21 xG · on targetMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 23′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 57′ · 0.62 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 31′ · 0.82 xG · goalLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 78′ · 0.94 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.47 xG. Bournemouth: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 45′Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 57′Leon Bailey · Aston Villa · 78′Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 31′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.47 xG · Bournemouth 1.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Aston Villa
1Draws
1Bournemouth
Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–2
Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0
Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa34 matchesBournemouth33 matches
2.09 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/331.45 goals/match
1.47 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/331.82 goals/match
1.75 xG/match ▲Expected goals34/331.49 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots34/3314.1 shots/match
5.26 shots/match ▲Shots on target34/334.91 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession34/3344.7%
6.38 corners/match ●Corners34/336.24 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls34/3313.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaBournemouth
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headAston Villa — Bournemouth
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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